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massive transfer of risk-reliability book
This commit is contained in:
Robert Lanzafame
parent
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commit
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152 changed files with 57886 additions and 0 deletions
133
.gitignore
vendored
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133
.gitignore
vendored
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|
|
@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
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|||
# Byte-compiled / optimized / DLL files
|
||||
__pycache__/
|
||||
*.py[cod]
|
||||
*$py.class
|
||||
|
||||
# C extensions
|
||||
*.so
|
||||
|
||||
# Distribution / packaging
|
||||
.Python
|
||||
build/
|
||||
develop-eggs/
|
||||
dist/
|
||||
downloads/
|
||||
eggs/
|
||||
.eggs/
|
||||
lib/
|
||||
lib64/
|
||||
parts/
|
||||
sdist/
|
||||
var/
|
||||
wheels/
|
||||
pip-wheel-metadata/
|
||||
share/python-wheels/
|
||||
*.egg-info/
|
||||
.installed.cfg
|
||||
*.egg
|
||||
MANIFEST
|
||||
.vscode/
|
||||
|
||||
# PyInstaller
|
||||
# Usually these files are written by a python script from a template
|
||||
# before PyInstaller builds the exe, so as to inject date/other infos into it.
|
||||
*.manifest
|
||||
*.spec
|
||||
|
||||
# Installer logs
|
||||
pip-log.txt
|
||||
pip-delete-this-directory.txt
|
||||
|
||||
# Unit test / coverage reports
|
||||
htmlcov/
|
||||
.tox/
|
||||
.nox/
|
||||
.coverage
|
||||
.coverage.*
|
||||
.cache
|
||||
nosetests.xml
|
||||
coverage.xml
|
||||
*.cover
|
||||
*.py,cover
|
||||
.hypothesis/
|
||||
.pytest_cache/
|
||||
|
||||
# Translations
|
||||
*.mo
|
||||
*.pot
|
||||
|
||||
# Django stuff:
|
||||
*.log
|
||||
local_settings.py
|
||||
db.sqlite3
|
||||
db.sqlite3-journal
|
||||
|
||||
# Flask stuff:
|
||||
instance/
|
||||
.webassets-cache
|
||||
|
||||
# Scrapy stuff:
|
||||
.scrapy
|
||||
|
||||
# Sphinx documentation
|
||||
docs/_build/
|
||||
|
||||
# PyBuilder
|
||||
target/
|
||||
|
||||
# Jupyter Notebook
|
||||
.ipynb_checkpoints
|
||||
|
||||
# IPython
|
||||
profile_default/
|
||||
ipython_config.py
|
||||
|
||||
# pyenv
|
||||
.python-version
|
||||
|
||||
# pipenv
|
||||
# According to pypa/pipenv#598, it is recommended to include Pipfile.lock in version control.
|
||||
# However, in case of collaboration, if having platform-specific dependencies or dependencies
|
||||
# having no cross-platform support, pipenv may install dependencies that don't work, or not
|
||||
# install all needed dependencies.
|
||||
#Pipfile.lock
|
||||
|
||||
# PEP 582; used by e.g. github.com/David-OConnor/pyflow
|
||||
__pypackages__/
|
||||
|
||||
# Celery stuff
|
||||
celerybeat-schedule
|
||||
celerybeat.pid
|
||||
|
||||
# SageMath parsed files
|
||||
*.sage.py
|
||||
|
||||
# Environments
|
||||
.env
|
||||
.venv
|
||||
env/
|
||||
venv/
|
||||
ENV/
|
||||
env.bak/
|
||||
venv.bak/
|
||||
|
||||
# Spyder project settings
|
||||
.spyderproject
|
||||
.spyproject
|
||||
|
||||
# Rope project settings
|
||||
.ropeproject
|
||||
|
||||
# mkdocs documentation
|
||||
/site
|
||||
|
||||
# mypy
|
||||
.mypy_cache/
|
||||
.dmypy.json
|
||||
dmypy.json
|
||||
|
||||
# Pyre type checker
|
||||
.pyre/
|
||||
|
||||
# Jupyter Book
|
||||
_build/
|
||||
75
.gitlab-ci.yml
Normal file
75
.gitlab-ci.yml
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
|
|||
stages:
|
||||
- test
|
||||
- build
|
||||
- deploy
|
||||
|
||||
variables:
|
||||
PIP_CACHE_DIR: "$CI_PROJECT_DIR/.cache/pip"
|
||||
REGISTRY_HOST: localhost:5000
|
||||
TAG_LATEST: $REGISTRY_HOST/$CI_PROJECT_NAME/$CI_COMMIT_REF_NAME:latest
|
||||
TAG_DRAFT: $REGISTRY_HOST/$CI_PROJECT_NAME-draft/$CI_COMMIT_REF_NAME:latest
|
||||
|
||||
cache:
|
||||
paths:
|
||||
- .cache/pip
|
||||
|
||||
# This job tests if the book compiles gracefully after a new addition
|
||||
test-build:
|
||||
stage: test
|
||||
image: python:3.11-bullseye
|
||||
rules:
|
||||
- if: $CI_PIPELINE_SOURCE == "merge_request_event"
|
||||
script:
|
||||
- pip install -r requirements.txt
|
||||
- jupyter-book clean book/
|
||||
- jupyter-book build book/
|
||||
|
||||
# This job builds the Docker container
|
||||
build-book:
|
||||
stage: build
|
||||
image: docker
|
||||
rules:
|
||||
- if: $CI_COMMIT_BRANCH == "publish" && $CI_PIPELINE_SOURCE == "push"
|
||||
variables:
|
||||
TAG: $TAG_LATEST
|
||||
- if: $CI_COMMIT_BRANCH == "main" && $CI_PIPELINE_SOURCE == "push"
|
||||
variables:
|
||||
TAG: $TAG_DRAFT
|
||||
before_script:
|
||||
- docker info
|
||||
script:
|
||||
- if [ "$TAG" = "$TAG_LATEST" ]; then sed --in-place=".bak" '/# START DRAFT/,/# END DRAFT/{//!d}' book/_config.yml; fi
|
||||
- docker build -t $TAG .
|
||||
- docker push $TAG
|
||||
|
||||
# This job takes down the existing container and starts the new one
|
||||
deploy-book:
|
||||
stage: deploy
|
||||
image: docker
|
||||
rules:
|
||||
- if: $CI_COMMIT_BRANCH == "publish" && $CI_PIPELINE_SOURCE == "push"
|
||||
before_script:
|
||||
- docker info
|
||||
- docker stop $CI_PROJECT_NAME || exit_code=$?
|
||||
- if [ $exit_code -ne 0 ]; then echo "Container not found, cannot stop"; else docker rm $CI_PROJECT_NAME; fi
|
||||
script:
|
||||
- docker run -d --restart always -p 8014:8000 --name $CI_PROJECT_NAME $TAG_LATEST # Make sure to use a different port for each book!
|
||||
environment:
|
||||
name: production
|
||||
url: https://interactivetextbooks.citg.tudelft.nl/$CI_PROJECT_NAME
|
||||
|
||||
# Deploy the draft version of the book
|
||||
deploy-draft:
|
||||
stage: deploy
|
||||
image: docker
|
||||
rules:
|
||||
- if: $CI_COMMIT_BRANCH == "main" && $CI_PIPELINE_SOURCE == "push"
|
||||
before_script:
|
||||
- docker info
|
||||
- docker stop $CI_PROJECT_NAME-draft || exit_code=$?
|
||||
- if [ $exit_code -ne 0 ]; then echo "Container not found, cannot stop"; else docker rm $CI_PROJECT_NAME-draft; fi
|
||||
script:
|
||||
- docker run -d --restart always -p 8015:8000 --name $CI_PROJECT_NAME-draft $TAG_DRAFT
|
||||
environment:
|
||||
name: draft
|
||||
url: https://interactivetextbooks.citg.tudelft.nl/$CI_PROJECT_NAME-draft
|
||||
9
Dockerfile
Normal file
9
Dockerfile
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
|
|||
FROM continuumio/miniconda3
|
||||
WORKDIR /book
|
||||
COPY book/ .
|
||||
RUN apt-get update && apt-get -y install git gcc
|
||||
COPY requirements.txt requirements.txt
|
||||
RUN pip install -r requirements.txt
|
||||
RUN jupyter book clean .
|
||||
RUN jupyter book build .
|
||||
ENTRYPOINT [ "python", "-m", "http.server", "8000", "--directory", "/book/_build/html"]
|
||||
3
LICENSE.md
Normal file
3
LICENSE.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
|
|||
This book is licensed under a <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.
|
||||
|
||||
<a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png"/></a>
|
||||
396
book/_bibliography/references.bib
Normal file
396
book/_bibliography/references.bib
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,396 @@
|
|||
@book{adk2022,
|
||||
title={Structural and System Reliability},
|
||||
author={Der Kiureghian, Armen},
|
||||
year={2022},
|
||||
publisher={Cambridge University Press}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{baecher1982,
|
||||
author = {Baecher, Gregory B},
|
||||
journal = {Engineering Foundations: Updating Subsurface Samplings of Soils and Rocks and their In-Situ Testing, Santa Barbara},
|
||||
title = {Statistical methods in site characterization},
|
||||
year = {1982},
|
||||
pages = {463--492}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@book{baecher2003,
|
||||
title={Reliability and statistics in geotechnical engineering},
|
||||
author={Baecher, Gregory B and Christian, John T},
|
||||
year={2003},
|
||||
publisher={John Wiley \& Sons}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{baecher2021,
|
||||
title={IFCEE 2021: Karl Terzaghi Lecture: Greg Baecher: Geotechnical Systems, Uncertainty, and Risk},
|
||||
author={Baecher, Gregory B},
|
||||
howpublished={Presentation, YouTube: \url{https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5w1p3uAe0I&ab_channel=Geo-InstituteofASCE}},
|
||||
year={2021}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@incollection{cardona2012,
|
||||
title={Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability},
|
||||
author={Cardona, Omar Dario and Van Aalst, Maarten K and Birkmann, J{\"o}rn and Fordham, Maureen and Mc Gregor, Glenn and Rosa, Perez and Pulwarty, Roger S and Schipper, E Lisa F and Sinh, Bach Tan and D{\'e}camps, Henri and others},
|
||||
booktitle={Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change},
|
||||
pages={65--108},
|
||||
year={2012},
|
||||
publisher={Cambridge University Press}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@book{ditlevsen1996,
|
||||
title={Structural reliability methods},
|
||||
author={Ditlevsen, Ove and Madsen, Henrik O},
|
||||
volume={178},
|
||||
year={1996},
|
||||
publisher={Wiley New York}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{Eijgenraam2006,
|
||||
author = {C.J.J. Eijgenraam},
|
||||
journal = {CPB discussion paper},
|
||||
title = {Optimal safety standards for dike ring areas},
|
||||
volume = {62},
|
||||
year = {2006},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@book{moss2020,
|
||||
title={Applied civil engineering risk analysis},
|
||||
author={Moss, Robb Eric S},
|
||||
year={2020},
|
||||
publisher={Springer}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{vandantzig1956,
|
||||
author = {D. van Dantzig},
|
||||
journal = {Econometrica},
|
||||
title = {Economic decision problems for flood prevention},
|
||||
volume = {24},
|
||||
year = {1956}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{vnk2014,
|
||||
author = {{Veiligheid Nederland in Kaart}},
|
||||
title = {De veiligheid van Nederland in kaart},
|
||||
year = {2014},
|
||||
journal = {Rijkswaterstaat},
|
||||
url = {https://www.helpdeskwater.nl/publish/pages/131663/eindrapport_vnk.pdf},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{vrijling1990,
|
||||
author = {Vrijling, J.K. and van Beurden, J.A.},
|
||||
journal = {Proceedings of the International Conference on Coastal Engineering},
|
||||
title = {Sealevel rise: a probabilistic design problem},
|
||||
year = {1990}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{vangelder1997,
|
||||
author = {P.H.A.J.M. Van Gelder and J.K. Vrijling and K.A.H. Slijkhuis},
|
||||
journal = {Water for a Changing Global Community},
|
||||
pages = {554-559},
|
||||
title = {Coping with uncertainty in the economical optimization of a dike design},
|
||||
year = {1997},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@phdthesis{voorendt2017,
|
||||
title={Design principles of multifunctional flood defences},
|
||||
author={Voorendt, Mark},
|
||||
school={Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands},
|
||||
year={2017}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{sympy_why,
|
||||
title={Sympy documentation},
|
||||
author={{SymPy Development Team}},
|
||||
howpublished={\url{https://docs.sympy.org/latest/tutorials/intro-tutorial/intro.html}},
|
||||
year={2023}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{jason_moore,
|
||||
title={Learn Multibody Dynamics, SymPy},
|
||||
author={Moore, Jason},
|
||||
howpublished={\url{https://moorepants.github.io/learn-multibody-dynamics/sympy.html}},
|
||||
year={2023}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{BFG,
|
||||
title={Animation of the unit circle with angles},
|
||||
author={BFG},
|
||||
howpublished={\url{https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Unitycircle-complex.gif}},
|
||||
year={2020}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{kaplan1981,
|
||||
author = {Kaplan, S. and Garrick, B.J.},
|
||||
journal = {Risk Analysis},
|
||||
pages = {11-27},
|
||||
title = {On The Quantitative Definition of Risk},
|
||||
year = {1981},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@inproceedings{farmer1967,
|
||||
title = {Siting Criteria - A New Approach},
|
||||
author = {Farmer, F.R.},
|
||||
year = 1967,
|
||||
month = {April},
|
||||
booktitle = {Proceedings of IAEA Symposium on the Containment and Siting of Nuclear Power Plants},
|
||||
publisher = {International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)},
|
||||
address = {Vienna},
|
||||
pages = {303-324},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@book{kendall1977,
|
||||
title={The Risks of Nuclear Power Reactors, A Review of the NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (NUREG-75/014)},
|
||||
author={Kendall, H.W. and Hubbard, R.B. and Minor, G.C. and Bryan, W.M. (Union of Concerned Scientists)},
|
||||
year={1977},
|
||||
publisher={Cambridge}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{vlek1996,
|
||||
author = {Vlek, C.A.J.},
|
||||
journal = {Risk Decision and Policy},
|
||||
pages = {9-31},
|
||||
title = {A multi-level, multi-stage and multi-attribute perspective on risk assessment, decision-making and risk control},
|
||||
year = {1996},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{slovic1987,
|
||||
author = {Slovic, P.},
|
||||
journal = {Science},
|
||||
pages = {280-285},
|
||||
title = {Perception of Risk},
|
||||
year = {1987},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{voortman2004,
|
||||
author = {Voortman, H.G. and Vrijling, J.K.},
|
||||
journal = {Heron},
|
||||
pages = {75-94},
|
||||
title = {Optimal design of flood defence systems in a changing climate},
|
||||
year = {2004},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{apostolakis2004,
|
||||
author = {Apostolakis, G.E.},
|
||||
journal = {Risk Analysis},
|
||||
pages = {515-520},
|
||||
title = {How Useful Is Quantitative Risk Assessment?},
|
||||
year = {2004},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{faber2003,
|
||||
title = {Risk Assessment for Civil Engineering Facilities: Critical Overview and Discussion},
|
||||
journal = {Reliability Engineering & System Safety},
|
||||
volume = {80},
|
||||
number = {2},
|
||||
pages = {173-184},
|
||||
year = {2003},
|
||||
issn = {0951-8320},
|
||||
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(03)00027-9},
|
||||
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832003000279},
|
||||
author = {Faber, M.H. and Stewart, M.G.},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@phdthesis{jongejan2008,
|
||||
title={How safe is safe enough? The government's response to industrial and flood risks},
|
||||
author={Jongejan, R.B.},
|
||||
school={Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands},
|
||||
year={2008}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{CUR1997,
|
||||
title={Kansen in de Civiele Techniek, Deel 1: Probabilistisch ontwerpen in theorie},
|
||||
author={CUR{\ }(Civieltechnisch{\ }Centrum{\ }Uitvoering{\ }Research{\ }en{\ }Regelgeving)},
|
||||
howpublished={CUR rapport 190},
|
||||
year={1997}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{CIB2001,
|
||||
title={A framework for risk management and risk communications, Work{\ }Group{\ }32,{\ }CIB},
|
||||
author={Vrouwenvelder, T. and Lovegrove, R. and Holicky, M.},
|
||||
howpublished={CIB report 259},
|
||||
year={2001}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{bea1998,
|
||||
author = {Bea, R.G.},
|
||||
journal = {Reliability Engineering & System Safety},
|
||||
pages = {109-126},
|
||||
title = {Human and Organization Factors: Engineering Operating Safety Into Offshore Structures},
|
||||
year = {1998},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{eurocode2001,
|
||||
title={Eurocode - Basis of Structural Design},
|
||||
author={EN 1990:2002 E, Eurocode},
|
||||
howpublished={CEN},
|
||||
year={2001}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@book{vrouwenvelder1996,
|
||||
author = {Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M. and Vrijling, J.K},
|
||||
title = {Collegedictaat Probabilistisch ontwerpen b3},
|
||||
year = {1996},
|
||||
publisher={TU Delft}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{starr1967,
|
||||
author = {Starr, C.},
|
||||
journal = {Science},
|
||||
pages = {1232-1238},
|
||||
title = {Social benefit versus technological risk},
|
||||
year = {1967},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@inproceedings{taerwe1986,
|
||||
title = {Mastering Global Quality by an Interactive Concept},
|
||||
author = {Taerwe, L.},
|
||||
year = 1986,
|
||||
booktitle = {Proceedings IABSE Symposium Tokyo 1986: Safety and Quality Assurance of Civil Engineering Structures},
|
||||
pages = {317-325},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@book{raiffa1961,
|
||||
author = {Raiffa, H. and Schlaifer, R.},
|
||||
title = {Applied Statistical Decision Theory},
|
||||
year = {1961},
|
||||
publisher={Harvard University press},
|
||||
address = {Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@book{benjamin1970,
|
||||
author = {Benjamin, J.R. and Cornell, C.A.},
|
||||
title = {Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers},
|
||||
year = {1970},
|
||||
publisher={McGraw Hill},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@inproceedings{don2003,
|
||||
author = {Don, F.H. and Stolwijk, H.J.J.},
|
||||
booktitle = {CUR (2003) 50 jaar na stormvloed 1953, terugblik en toekomst},
|
||||
title = {Investeren in veiligheid: de watersnoodramp van 1953 en de kosten en baten van het deltaplan},
|
||||
pages={79-98},
|
||||
year = {2003},
|
||||
howpublished={CUR rapport 212},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@inproceedings{vrijling2000,
|
||||
title={An Analysis of the Valuation of a Human Life},
|
||||
author={Vrijling, J.K. and Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van},
|
||||
booktitle={Foresight and Precaution: Proceedings of ESREL 2000, SARS and SRA-Europe Annual Conference. Edited by M.P. Cottam, D.W. Harvey, R.P. Pape and J. Tait},
|
||||
pages={197-200},
|
||||
volume={1},
|
||||
year={2000},
|
||||
address={Edinburgh, Scotland}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{jongejan2005,
|
||||
author = {Jongejan, R.B. and Jonkman, S.N. and Vrijling, J.K.},
|
||||
journal = {ESREL},
|
||||
title = {Methods for the Valuation of Human Life},
|
||||
year = {2005},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{SWOV2012,
|
||||
title={Waardering van immateriële kosten van verkeersdoden},
|
||||
author={SWOV{\ }(Stichting{\ }Wetenschappelijk{\ }Onderzoek{\ }Verkeersveiligheid)},
|
||||
howpublished={Factsheet, \url{http://www.swov.nl/rapport/Factsheets/NL/Factsheet_Immateriele_kosten.pdf}},
|
||||
year={2012},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@inproceedings{jeuken2013,
|
||||
author = {Jeuken, A. and Kind, J. and Slootjes, N. and Gauderis, J. and Vos, R.},
|
||||
year = {2013},
|
||||
month = {01},
|
||||
pages = {},
|
||||
title = {Cost-benefit Analysis of Flood Risk Management Strategies for the Rhine-Meuse Delta},
|
||||
booktitle = {Comprehensive Flood Risk Management, Taylor & Francis Group},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{tengs1995,
|
||||
author = {Tengs, T.O. and Adams, M.E. and Pliskin, J.S. and Gelb Safran, D. and Siegel, J.E. and Weinstein, M.C. and Graham, J.D.},
|
||||
journal = {Risk Analysis},
|
||||
volume={15},
|
||||
number={3},
|
||||
pages={369-390},
|
||||
title = {Five-hundred Live Saving Interventions and Their Cost Effectiveness},
|
||||
year = {1995},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{TAW1985,
|
||||
title={Some Considerations of an Acceptable Level of Risk in the Netherlands},
|
||||
author={TAW{\ }(Technical{\ }Advisory{\ }Committee{\ }on{\ }Water{\ }Defences)},
|
||||
howpublished={Report by TAW workgroup 10 'Probabilistic methods'},
|
||||
year={1985},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{vrijling1995,
|
||||
author = {Vrijling, J.K. and Hengel, W. van and Houben, R.J.},
|
||||
journal = {Journal of Hazardous Materials},
|
||||
volume={43},
|
||||
pages = {245-261},
|
||||
title = {A Framework for Risk Evaluation},
|
||||
year = {1995},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{vrijling1998,
|
||||
author = {Vrijling, J.K. and Hengel, W. van and Houben, R.J.},
|
||||
journal = {Reliability Engineering and System Safety},
|
||||
volume={59},
|
||||
pages = {141-150},
|
||||
title = {Acceptable Risk as a Basis for Design},
|
||||
year = {1998},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{jonkman2003,
|
||||
author = {Jonkman, S.N. and van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. and Vrijling, J.K.},
|
||||
journal = {Journal of Hazardous Materials},
|
||||
volume={A99},
|
||||
pages = {1-30},
|
||||
title = {An Overview of Quantitative Risk Measures for Loss of Life and Economic Damage},
|
||||
year = {2003},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{bottelberghs2000,
|
||||
author = {Bottelberghs, P.H.},
|
||||
journal = {Journal of Hazardous Materials},
|
||||
volume={71},
|
||||
pages = {117-123},
|
||||
title = {Risk Analysis and Safety Policy Developments in the Netherlands},
|
||||
year = {2000},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{vrijling2001,
|
||||
title = {Probabilistic Design of Water Defense Systems in The Netherlands},
|
||||
journal = {Reliability Engineering & System Safety},
|
||||
volume = {74},
|
||||
number = {3},
|
||||
pages = {337-344},
|
||||
year = {2001},
|
||||
issn = {0951-8320},
|
||||
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00082-5},
|
||||
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832001000825},
|
||||
author = {Vrijling, J.K.},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{delta2014,
|
||||
title={Deltaprogramma Veiligheid. Synthesedocument Veiligheid},
|
||||
author={Deltaprogramma},
|
||||
howpublished={Achtergronddocument B1},
|
||||
year={2014}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@article{sitar1987,
|
||||
title = {First-order Reliability Approach to Stochastic Analysis of Subsurface Flow and Contaminant Transport},
|
||||
journal = {Water Resources Research},
|
||||
volume = {23},
|
||||
number = {5},
|
||||
pages = {794-804},
|
||||
year = {1987},
|
||||
author = {Sitar, N. and Cawlfield, J. D. and Der Kiureghian, A.},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@misc{usace14,
|
||||
title={Safety and Health Requirements Manual},
|
||||
author={U.S.{\ }Army{\ }Corps{\ }of{\ }Engineers},
|
||||
howpublished={EM 385-1-1},
|
||||
year={2014}
|
||||
}
|
||||
61
book/_config.yml
Normal file
61
book/_config.yml
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
|
|||
title: Risk and Reliability for Engineers
|
||||
author: Robert Lanzafame
|
||||
logo: figures/cover_small.png
|
||||
copyright: Delft University of Technology, CC BY 4.0 # overriden by extra footer/sphinx config
|
||||
|
||||
execute:
|
||||
execute_notebooks: "off"
|
||||
|
||||
launch_buttons:
|
||||
thebe: true
|
||||
|
||||
only_build_toc_files: true
|
||||
|
||||
repository:
|
||||
url: https://gitlab.tudelft.nl/interactivetextbooks-citg/risk-and-reliability/
|
||||
branch: main/book # for edit button; need to check branch permissions non-TUD user access
|
||||
|
||||
html:
|
||||
# X START DRAFT # temporarily enable Hypothesis for published book until Library finishes
|
||||
comments:
|
||||
hypothesis: true
|
||||
# X END DRAFT
|
||||
use_edit_page_button: false
|
||||
use_repository_button: true
|
||||
extra_footer: |
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
© Delft University of Technology, CC BY 4.0
|
||||
<img src="https://gitlab.tudelft.nl/interactivetextbooks-citg/risk-and-reliability/-/raw/main/book/images/TUDelft_logo_rgb.png?ref_type=heads" width="88px">
|
||||
<a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
|
||||
<img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:; width:80px; height:auto; padding-top:0px" src="https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png" />
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
|
||||
sphinx:
|
||||
config:
|
||||
html_show_copyright: false
|
||||
html_js_files:
|
||||
- https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/require.js/2.3.4/require.min.js
|
||||
thebe_config:
|
||||
use_thebe_lite: true
|
||||
exclude_patterns: ["**/_*.yml", "**/*.md", "**/*.ipynb"]
|
||||
# Reference issues
|
||||
# See: https://github.com/executablebooks/jupyter-book/issues/1090
|
||||
# and Milestone 10:
|
||||
# https://gitlab.tudelft.nl/groups/interactivetextbooks-citg/-/milestones/10#tab-issues
|
||||
# This next line was from Caspar/citg-jb-stack and doesn't work (see Issue 24)
|
||||
# https://gitlab.tudelft.nl/interactivetextbooks-citg/risk-and-reliability/-/issues/24
|
||||
# bibtex_reference_style: author_year
|
||||
bibtex_reference_style: author_year_round
|
||||
bibtex_default_style: myapastyle
|
||||
extra_extensions:
|
||||
- sphinx.ext.imgconverter
|
||||
- download_link_replacer
|
||||
- jupyterbook_patches
|
||||
# Local extensions are for bibtex (Thirza's hydrology hack); see above
|
||||
local_extensions:
|
||||
apastyle: _ext/
|
||||
bracket_citation_style: _ext/
|
||||
|
||||
bibtex_bibfiles:
|
||||
- _bibliography/references.bib
|
||||
17
book/_ext/apastyle.py
Normal file
17
book/_ext/apastyle.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
|
|||
|
||||
# from pybtex.style.formatting.unsrt import Style
|
||||
from pybtexapastyle.formatting.apa import APAStyle
|
||||
from pybtexapastyle.labels.apa import LabelStyle as APALabelStyle
|
||||
from pybtex.plugin import register_plugin
|
||||
# from pybtex.style.template import names, sentence
|
||||
|
||||
class MyAPALabelStyle(APALabelStyle):
|
||||
def format_label(self, entry):
|
||||
return APALabelStyle.format_label(self, entry)
|
||||
|
||||
class MyAPAStyle(APAStyle):
|
||||
default_label_style = 'myapa'
|
||||
|
||||
def setup(app):
|
||||
register_plugin('pybtex.style.labels', 'myapa', MyAPALabelStyle)
|
||||
register_plugin('pybtex.style.formatting', 'myapastyle', MyAPAStyle)
|
||||
27
book/_ext/bracket_citation_style.py
Normal file
27
book/_ext/bracket_citation_style.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
|
|||
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
|
||||
import sphinxcontrib.bibtex.plugin
|
||||
|
||||
from sphinxcontrib.bibtex.style.referencing import BracketStyle
|
||||
from sphinxcontrib.bibtex.style.referencing.author_year import AuthorYearReferenceStyle
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def bracket_style() -> BracketStyle:
|
||||
return BracketStyle(
|
||||
left='(',
|
||||
right=')',
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@dataclass
|
||||
class MyReferenceStyle(AuthorYearReferenceStyle):
|
||||
bracket_parenthetical: BracketStyle = field(default_factory=bracket_style)
|
||||
bracket_textual: BracketStyle = field(default_factory=bracket_style)
|
||||
bracket_author: BracketStyle = field(default_factory=bracket_style)
|
||||
bracket_label: BracketStyle = field(default_factory=bracket_style)
|
||||
bracket_year: BracketStyle = field(default_factory=bracket_style)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def setup(app):
|
||||
sphinxcontrib.bibtex.plugin.register_plugin(
|
||||
'sphinxcontrib.bibtex.style.referencing',
|
||||
'author_year_round', MyReferenceStyle)
|
||||
114
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/.gitignore
vendored
Normal file
114
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/.gitignore
vendored
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
|
|||
|
||||
# Created by https://www.gitignore.io/api/python
|
||||
|
||||
### Python ###
|
||||
# Byte-compiled / optimized / DLL files
|
||||
__pycache__/
|
||||
*.py[cod]
|
||||
*$py.class
|
||||
|
||||
# C extensions
|
||||
*.so
|
||||
|
||||
# Distribution / packaging
|
||||
.Python
|
||||
build/
|
||||
develop-eggs/
|
||||
dist/
|
||||
downloads/
|
||||
eggs/
|
||||
.eggs/
|
||||
lib/
|
||||
lib64/
|
||||
parts/
|
||||
sdist/
|
||||
var/
|
||||
wheels/
|
||||
*.egg-info/
|
||||
.installed.cfg
|
||||
*.egg
|
||||
MANIFEST
|
||||
|
||||
# PyInstaller
|
||||
# Usually these files are written by a python script from a template
|
||||
# before PyInstaller builds the exe, so as to inject date/other infos into it.
|
||||
*.manifest
|
||||
*.spec
|
||||
|
||||
# Installer logs
|
||||
pip-log.txt
|
||||
pip-delete-this-directory.txt
|
||||
|
||||
# Unit test / coverage reports
|
||||
htmlcov/
|
||||
.tox/
|
||||
.coverage
|
||||
.coverage.*
|
||||
.cache
|
||||
nosetests.xml
|
||||
coverage.xml
|
||||
*.cover
|
||||
.hypothesis/
|
||||
.pytest_cache/
|
||||
|
||||
# Translations
|
||||
*.mo
|
||||
*.pot
|
||||
|
||||
# Django stuff:
|
||||
*.log
|
||||
local_settings.py
|
||||
db.sqlite3
|
||||
|
||||
# Flask stuff:
|
||||
instance/
|
||||
.webassets-cache
|
||||
|
||||
# Scrapy stuff:
|
||||
.scrapy
|
||||
|
||||
# Sphinx documentation
|
||||
docs/_build/
|
||||
|
||||
# PyBuilder
|
||||
target/
|
||||
|
||||
# Jupyter Notebook
|
||||
.ipynb_checkpoints
|
||||
|
||||
# pyenv
|
||||
.python-version
|
||||
|
||||
# celery beat schedule file
|
||||
celerybeat-schedule
|
||||
|
||||
# SageMath parsed files
|
||||
*.sage.py
|
||||
|
||||
# Environments
|
||||
.env
|
||||
.venv
|
||||
env/
|
||||
venv/
|
||||
ENV/
|
||||
env.bak/
|
||||
venv.bak/
|
||||
|
||||
# Spyder project settings
|
||||
.spyderproject
|
||||
.spyproject
|
||||
|
||||
# Rope project settings
|
||||
.ropeproject
|
||||
|
||||
# mkdocs documentation
|
||||
/site
|
||||
|
||||
# mypy
|
||||
.mypy_cache/
|
||||
|
||||
### Python Patch ###
|
||||
.venv/
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
# End of https://www.gitignore.io/api/python
|
||||
21
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/LICENSE
Normal file
21
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/LICENSE
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
|
|||
MIT License
|
||||
|
||||
Copyright (c) 2018 Naeka
|
||||
|
||||
Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
|
||||
of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
|
||||
in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
|
||||
to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
|
||||
copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
|
||||
furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
|
||||
|
||||
The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
|
||||
copies or substantial portions of the Software.
|
||||
|
||||
THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
|
||||
IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
|
||||
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
|
||||
AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
|
||||
LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
|
||||
OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
|
||||
SOFTWARE.
|
||||
0
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/formatting/__init__.py
Normal file
0
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/formatting/__init__.py
Normal file
486
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/formatting/apa.py
Normal file
486
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/formatting/apa.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,486 @@
|
|||
# -*- coding:Utf-8 -*-
|
||||
from __future__ import unicode_literals
|
||||
|
||||
import re
|
||||
import six
|
||||
|
||||
from pybtex.plugin import find_plugin
|
||||
from pybtex.style.formatting import BaseStyle, toplevel
|
||||
from pybtex.style.template import (
|
||||
field, first_of, href, join, optional, optional_field, sentence, tag,
|
||||
together, words, node, FieldIsMissing
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
from pybtex.richtext import Text, Symbol
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
firstlast = find_plugin('pybtex.style.names', 'lastfirst')()
|
||||
|
||||
if six.PY2:
|
||||
def format_pages(text):
|
||||
dash_re = re.compile(r'-+')
|
||||
pages = Text(Symbol('ndash')).join(
|
||||
re.split(dash_re, six.text_type(text)))
|
||||
if re.search('[-‒–—―]', six.text_type(text)):
|
||||
return Text("pp.", Symbol('nbsp'), pages)
|
||||
return Text("p.", Symbol('nbsp'), pages)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
def format_pages(text):
|
||||
dash_re = re.compile(r'-+')
|
||||
pages = Text(Symbol('ndash')).join(text.split(dash_re))
|
||||
if re.search('[-‒–—―]', str(text)):
|
||||
return Text("pp.", Symbol('nbsp'), pages)
|
||||
return Text("p.", Symbol('nbsp'), pages)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
pages = field('pages', apply_func=format_pages)
|
||||
date = words[field('year'), optional[", ", field('month')]]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@node
|
||||
def apa_names(children, context, role, **kwargs):
|
||||
"""
|
||||
Returns formatted names as an APA compliant reference list citation.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
assert not children
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
persons = context['entry'].persons[role]
|
||||
except KeyError:
|
||||
raise FieldIsMissing(role, context['entry'])
|
||||
|
||||
style = context['style']
|
||||
|
||||
if len(persons) > 7:
|
||||
persons = persons[:6] + persons[-1:]
|
||||
formatted_names = [style.format_name(
|
||||
person, style.abbreviate_names) for person in persons]
|
||||
return join(sep=', ', last_sep=', … ')[
|
||||
formatted_names].format_data(context)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
formatted_names = [style.format_name(
|
||||
person, style.abbreviate_names) for person in persons]
|
||||
return join(sep=', ', sep2=', & ', last_sep=', & ')[
|
||||
formatted_names].format_data(context)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@node
|
||||
def editor_names(children, context, with_suffix=True, **kwargs):
|
||||
"""
|
||||
Returns formatted editor names for inbook.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
assert not children
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
editors = context['entry'].persons['editor']
|
||||
except KeyError:
|
||||
raise FieldIsMissing('editor', context['entry'])
|
||||
|
||||
formatted_names = [
|
||||
firstlast.format(editor, True) for editor in editors]
|
||||
|
||||
if with_suffix:
|
||||
return words[
|
||||
join(sep=', ', sep2=', & ', last_sep=', & ')[formatted_names],
|
||||
"(Eds.)" if len(editors) > 1 else "(Ed.)"
|
||||
].format_data(context)
|
||||
|
||||
return join(sep=', ', sep2=', & ', last_sep=', & ')[
|
||||
formatted_names
|
||||
].format_data(context)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class APAStyle(BaseStyle):
|
||||
name = 'apa'
|
||||
default_name_style = 'lastfirst'
|
||||
default_sorting_style = 'author_year_title'
|
||||
default_label_style = 'apa'
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
|
||||
super(APAStyle, self).__init__(*args, **kwargs)
|
||||
self.abbreviate_names = True
|
||||
|
||||
def format_names(self, role, as_sentence=True):
|
||||
formatted_names = apa_names(role)
|
||||
if as_sentence:
|
||||
return sentence(capfirst=False)[formatted_names]
|
||||
else:
|
||||
return formatted_names
|
||||
|
||||
def format_author_or_editor_and_date(self, e):
|
||||
if 'author' in e.persons and 'editor' in e.persons:
|
||||
return sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_names('author'), join["(", date, ")."],
|
||||
self.format_editor(e, as_sentence=False)]
|
||||
elif 'author' in e.persons:
|
||||
return sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_names('author'), join["(", date, ")"]]
|
||||
else:
|
||||
return sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_editor(e, as_sentence=False),
|
||||
join["(", date, ")"]]
|
||||
|
||||
def format_editor(self, e, as_sentence=True):
|
||||
editors = self.format_names('editor', as_sentence=False)
|
||||
if 'editor' not in e.persons:
|
||||
# when parsing the template, a FieldIsMissing exception
|
||||
# will be thrown anyway; no need to do anything now,
|
||||
# just return the template that will throw the exception
|
||||
return editors
|
||||
if len(e.persons['editor']) > 1:
|
||||
word = '(Eds.)'
|
||||
else:
|
||||
word = '(Ed.)'
|
||||
result = join(sep=' ')[editors, word]
|
||||
if as_sentence:
|
||||
return sentence[result]
|
||||
else:
|
||||
return result
|
||||
|
||||
def format_volume(self, e, for_article=False):
|
||||
prefix = "Vol."
|
||||
if for_article:
|
||||
return join[
|
||||
tag('em')[field('volume')],
|
||||
optional['(', field('number'), ')'],
|
||||
]
|
||||
else:
|
||||
return optional[together[prefix, field('volume')]]
|
||||
|
||||
def format_title(self, e, which_field, as_sentence=True):
|
||||
formatted_title = field(
|
||||
which_field, apply_func=lambda text: text.capitalize()
|
||||
)
|
||||
if as_sentence:
|
||||
return sentence[formatted_title]
|
||||
else:
|
||||
return formatted_title
|
||||
|
||||
def format_btitle(self, e, which_field, as_sentence=True):
|
||||
formatted_title = tag('em')[field(which_field)]
|
||||
if as_sentence:
|
||||
return sentence[formatted_title]
|
||||
else:
|
||||
return formatted_title
|
||||
|
||||
def format_web_refs(self, e):
|
||||
# Based on urlbst output.web.refs
|
||||
return sentence(add_period=False)[
|
||||
optional[self.format_url(e)],
|
||||
optional[self.format_eprint(e)],
|
||||
optional[self.format_pubmed(e)],
|
||||
optional[self.format_doi(e)],
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def format_url(self, e):
|
||||
# Based on urlbst format.url
|
||||
return words[
|
||||
'URL:',
|
||||
href[
|
||||
field('url', raw=True),
|
||||
field('url', raw=True)
|
||||
]
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def format_pubmed(self, e):
|
||||
# Based on urlbst format.pubmed
|
||||
return href[
|
||||
join[
|
||||
'https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/',
|
||||
field('pubmed', raw=True)
|
||||
],
|
||||
join[
|
||||
'PMID:',
|
||||
field('pubmed', raw=True)
|
||||
]
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def format_doi(self, e):
|
||||
# Based on urlbst format.doi
|
||||
return href[
|
||||
join[
|
||||
'https://doi.org/',
|
||||
field('doi', raw=True)
|
||||
],
|
||||
join[
|
||||
'doi:',
|
||||
field('doi', raw=True)
|
||||
]
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def format_eprint(self, e):
|
||||
# Based on urlbst format.eprint
|
||||
return href[
|
||||
join[
|
||||
'https://arxiv.org/abs/',
|
||||
field('eprint', raw=True)
|
||||
],
|
||||
join[
|
||||
'arXiv:',
|
||||
field('eprint', raw=True)
|
||||
]
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_article_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: author, title, journal, year
|
||||
# Optional fields: volume, number, pages, month, note, key
|
||||
volume_and_pages = first_of[
|
||||
# Volume and pages, with optional issue number
|
||||
optional[
|
||||
join[
|
||||
self.format_volume(e, for_article=True),
|
||||
optional[', ', field('pages')]
|
||||
],
|
||||
],
|
||||
# Pages only
|
||||
pages,
|
||||
]
|
||||
template = toplevel[
|
||||
self.format_names('author'),
|
||||
sentence[
|
||||
join["(", date, ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
self.format_title(e, 'title'),
|
||||
sentence[
|
||||
tag('em')[field('journal')],
|
||||
optional[volume_and_pages],
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
self.format_web_refs(e),
|
||||
]
|
||||
return template
|
||||
|
||||
def get_book_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: author/editor, title, publisher, year
|
||||
# Optional fields: volume, series, address, edition, month, note, key,
|
||||
# isbn
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
self.format_author_or_editor_and_date(e),
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'title'),
|
||||
optional[
|
||||
sentence[
|
||||
optional[field('edition'), ' ed.'],
|
||||
self.format_volume(e),
|
||||
]
|
||||
]
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence(sep=': ')[
|
||||
optional_field('address'),
|
||||
field('publisher'),
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_booklet_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: title
|
||||
# Optional fields: author, howpublished, address, month, year, note,
|
||||
# key
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
first_of[
|
||||
optional[self.format_names(
|
||||
'author', as_sentence=False)],
|
||||
"None to claim their bones"
|
||||
],
|
||||
join["(", first_of[optional[date], "n.d."], ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
self.format_title(e, 'title'),
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('address')],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_inbook_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: author/editor, title, chapter/pages, publisher, year
|
||||
# Optional fields: volume, series, address, edition, month, note, key
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_names('author'),
|
||||
join["(", date, ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
self.format_title(e, 'title'),
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
optional[
|
||||
"In ",
|
||||
editor_names(),
|
||||
","
|
||||
],
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'booktitle', as_sentence=False),
|
||||
optional[
|
||||
join[
|
||||
"(",
|
||||
sentence(add_period=False)[
|
||||
optional[field('edition'), ' ed.'],
|
||||
self.format_volume(e),
|
||||
pages,
|
||||
],
|
||||
")"
|
||||
]
|
||||
]
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence(sep=': ')[
|
||||
optional_field('address'),
|
||||
field('publisher'),
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_incollection_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: author, title, booktitle, year
|
||||
# Optional fields: editor, pages, organization, publisher, address,
|
||||
# month, note, key
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
self.format_author_or_editor_and_date(e),
|
||||
self.format_title(e, 'title'),
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'booktitle', as_sentence=False),
|
||||
optional["(", pages, ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence(sep=': ')[
|
||||
optional_field('address'),
|
||||
optional_field('publisher'),
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_inproceedings_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: author, title, booktitle, year
|
||||
# Optional fields: editor, pages, organization, publisher, address,
|
||||
# month, note, key
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
self.format_author_or_editor_and_date(e),
|
||||
self.format_title(e, 'title'),
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'booktitle', as_sentence=False),
|
||||
optional["(", pages, ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence(sep=': ')[
|
||||
optional_field('address'),
|
||||
optional_field('publisher'),
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
self.format_web_refs(e)
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_manual_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: title
|
||||
# Optional fields: author, organization, address, edition, month, year,
|
||||
# note, key
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
first_of[
|
||||
optional[self.format_names('author', as_sentence=False)],
|
||||
optional_field('organization'),
|
||||
"None to claim their bones"
|
||||
],
|
||||
join["(", first_of[optional[date], "n.d."], ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'title'),
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('address')],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
self.format_web_refs(e)
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_mastersthesis_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: author, title, school, year
|
||||
# Optional fields: address, month, note, key
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_names('author'),
|
||||
join["(", date, ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'title', as_sentence=False),
|
||||
"(Master's thesis)"
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[
|
||||
field('school'),
|
||||
optional_field('address'),
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_misc_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: aucun
|
||||
# Optional fields: author, title, howpublished, month, year, note, key,
|
||||
# type
|
||||
template = toplevel[
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
first_of[
|
||||
optional[self.format_names('author', as_sentence=False)],
|
||||
optional_field('publisher'),
|
||||
"None to claim their bones"
|
||||
],
|
||||
join["(", first_of[optional[date], "n.d."], ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
optional[self.format_title(e, 'title')],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
self.format_web_refs(e)
|
||||
]
|
||||
return template
|
||||
|
||||
def get_phdthesis_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: author, title, school, year
|
||||
# Optional fields: address, month, note, key
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_names('author'),
|
||||
join["(", date, ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'title', as_sentence=False),
|
||||
"(Doctoral dissertation)"
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[
|
||||
field('school'),
|
||||
optional_field('address'),
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_proceedings_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: title, year
|
||||
# Optional fields: editor, publisher, organization, address, month,
|
||||
# note, key
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
first_of[
|
||||
optional[self.format_editor(e, as_sentence=False)],
|
||||
optional_field('organization'),
|
||||
"None to claim their bones"
|
||||
],
|
||||
join["(", first_of[optional[date], "n.d."], ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'title'),
|
||||
sentence(sep=': ')[
|
||||
optional_field('address'),
|
||||
optional_field('publisher'),
|
||||
],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_techreport_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: author, title, institution, year
|
||||
# Optional fields: type, number, address, month, note, key
|
||||
return toplevel[
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_names('author', as_sentence=False),
|
||||
join["(", date, ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'title'),
|
||||
sentence[field('institution')],
|
||||
sentence[optional_field('note')],
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_unpublished_template(self, e):
|
||||
# Required fields: author, title, note
|
||||
# Optional fields: month, year, key
|
||||
template = toplevel[
|
||||
sentence(sep=' ')[
|
||||
self.format_names('author', as_sentence=False),
|
||||
join["(", first_of[optional[date], "n.d."], ")"]
|
||||
],
|
||||
self.format_btitle(e, 'title'),
|
||||
sentence[field('note')],
|
||||
]
|
||||
return template
|
||||
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
|
|||
from __future__ import unicode_literals
|
||||
|
||||
from pybtex.style import FormattedEntry, FormattedBibliography
|
||||
from pybtex.style.template import node, join
|
||||
from pybtex.richtext import Symbol
|
||||
from pybtex.plugin import Plugin, find_plugin
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
@node
|
||||
def toplevel(children, data):
|
||||
return join(sep=Symbol('newblock')) [children].format_data(data)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class BaseStyle(Plugin):
|
||||
"""
|
||||
The base class for pythonic formatting styles.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
default_name_style = None
|
||||
default_label_style = None
|
||||
default_sorting_style = None
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(self, label_style=None, name_style=None, sorting_style=None, abbreviate_names=False, min_crossrefs=2, **kwargs):
|
||||
self.name_style = find_plugin('pybtex.style.names', name_style or self.default_name_style)()
|
||||
self.label_style = find_plugin('pybtex.style.labels', label_style or self.default_label_style)()
|
||||
self.sorting_style = find_plugin('pybtex.style.sorting', sorting_style or self.default_sorting_style)()
|
||||
self.format_name = self.name_style.format
|
||||
self.format_labels = self.label_style.format_labels
|
||||
self.sort = self.sorting_style.sort
|
||||
self.abbreviate_names = abbreviate_names
|
||||
self.min_crossrefs = min_crossrefs
|
||||
|
||||
def format_entries(self, entries, bib_data=None):
|
||||
sorted_entries = self.sort(entries)
|
||||
labels = self.format_labels(sorted_entries)
|
||||
for label, entry in zip(labels, sorted_entries):
|
||||
yield self.format_entry(label, entry, bib_data=bib_data)
|
||||
|
||||
def format_entry(self, label, entry, bib_data=None):
|
||||
context = {
|
||||
'entry': entry,
|
||||
'style': self,
|
||||
'bib_data': bib_data,
|
||||
}
|
||||
try:
|
||||
get_template = getattr(self, 'get_{}_template'.format(entry.type))
|
||||
except AttributeError:
|
||||
format_method = getattr(self, "format_" + entry.type)
|
||||
text = format_method(context)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
text = get_template(entry).format_data(context)
|
||||
return FormattedEntry(entry.key, text, label)
|
||||
|
||||
def format_bibliography(self, bib_data, citations=None):
|
||||
"""
|
||||
Format bibliography entries with the given keys and return a
|
||||
``FormattedBibliography`` object.
|
||||
|
||||
:param bib_data: A :py:class:`pybtex.database.BibliographyData` object.
|
||||
:param citations: A list of citation keys.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
if citations is None:
|
||||
citations = list(bib_data.entries.keys())
|
||||
citations = bib_data.add_extra_citations(citations, self.min_crossrefs)
|
||||
entries = [bib_data.entries[key] for key in citations]
|
||||
formatted_entries = self.format_entries(entries)
|
||||
formatted_bibliography = FormattedBibliography(formatted_entries, style=self, preamble=bib_data.preamble)
|
||||
return formatted_bibliography
|
||||
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
|||
from __future__ import unicode_literals
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
from pybtex.plugin import Plugin
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class BaseSortingStyle(Plugin):
|
||||
def sorting_key(self, entry):
|
||||
raise NotImplementedError
|
||||
|
||||
def sort(self, entries):
|
||||
return sorted(entries, key=self.sorting_key)
|
||||
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
|
|||
from __future__ import unicode_literals
|
||||
|
||||
from pybtex.style.sorting import BaseSortingStyle
|
||||
|
||||
class SortingStyle(BaseSortingStyle):
|
||||
|
||||
def sorting_key(self, entry):
|
||||
if entry.type in ('book', 'inbook'):
|
||||
author_key = self.author_editor_key(entry)
|
||||
elif 'author' in entry.persons:
|
||||
author_key = self.persons_key(entry.persons['author'])
|
||||
else:
|
||||
author_key = ''
|
||||
return (author_key, entry.fields.get('year', ''), entry.fields.get('title', ''))
|
||||
|
||||
def persons_key(self, persons):
|
||||
return ' '.join(self.person_key(person) for person in persons)
|
||||
|
||||
def person_key(self, person):
|
||||
if person.prelast_names[0] != '{' and person.last_names[0] != '{' and person.first_names[0] != '{':
|
||||
return ' '.join((
|
||||
' '.join(person.prelast_names + person.last_names),
|
||||
' '.join(person.first_names + person.middle_names),
|
||||
' '.join(person.lineage_names),
|
||||
)).lower()
|
||||
else:
|
||||
return ' '.join((
|
||||
' '.join(person.first_names + person.middle_names),
|
||||
' '.join(person.prelast_names + person.last_names),
|
||||
' '.join(person.lineage_names),
|
||||
)).lower()
|
||||
|
||||
def author_editor_key(self, entry):
|
||||
if entry.persons.get('author'):
|
||||
return self.persons_key(entry.persons['author'])
|
||||
elif entry.persons.get('editor'):
|
||||
return self.persons_key(entry.persons['editor'])
|
||||
else:
|
||||
return ''
|
||||
0
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/labels/__init__.py
Normal file
0
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/labels/__init__.py
Normal file
67
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/labels/apa.py
Normal file
67
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/labels/apa.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
|
|||
# -*- coding:Utf-8 -*-
|
||||
from __future__ import unicode_literals
|
||||
|
||||
from collections import Counter
|
||||
import re
|
||||
import unicodedata
|
||||
|
||||
from pybtex.style.labels import BaseLabelStyle
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
_nonalnum_pattern = re.compile('[^A-Za-z0-9 \-]+', re.UNICODE)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _strip_accents(s):
|
||||
return "".join(
|
||||
(c for c in unicodedata.normalize('NFD', s)
|
||||
if not unicodedata.combining(c)))
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _strip_nonalnum(parts):
|
||||
"""Strip all non-alphanumerical characters from a list of strings.
|
||||
|
||||
>>> print(_strip_nonalnum([u"ÅA. B. Testing 12+}[.@~_", u" 3%"]))
|
||||
AABTesting123
|
||||
"""
|
||||
s = "".join(parts)
|
||||
return _nonalnum_pattern.sub("", _strip_accents(s))
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class LabelStyle(BaseLabelStyle):
|
||||
def format_labels(self, sorted_entries):
|
||||
labels = [self.format_label(entry) for entry in sorted_entries]
|
||||
count = Counter(labels)
|
||||
counted = Counter()
|
||||
for label in labels:
|
||||
if count[label] == 1:
|
||||
yield label
|
||||
else:
|
||||
yield label # + chr(ord('a') + counted[label])
|
||||
# counted.update([label])
|
||||
|
||||
def format_label(self, entry):
|
||||
label = "Anonymous"
|
||||
if 'author' in entry.persons:
|
||||
label = self.format_author_or_editor_names(entry.persons['author'])
|
||||
elif 'editor' in entry.persons:
|
||||
label = self.format_author_or_editor_names(entry.persons['editor'])
|
||||
elif 'organization' in entry.fields:
|
||||
label = entry.fields['organization']
|
||||
if label.startswith("The "):
|
||||
label = label[4:]
|
||||
return ''
|
||||
# if 'year' in entry.fields:
|
||||
# return "{}, {}".format(label, entry.fields['year'])
|
||||
# else:
|
||||
# return "{}, n.d.".format(label)
|
||||
|
||||
def format_author_or_editor_names(self, persons):
|
||||
if len(persons) is 1:
|
||||
return _strip_nonalnum(persons[0].last_names)
|
||||
elif len(persons) is 2:
|
||||
return "{} & {}".format(
|
||||
_strip_nonalnum(persons[0].last_names),
|
||||
_strip_nonalnum(persons[1].last_names))
|
||||
else:
|
||||
return "{} et al.".format(
|
||||
_strip_nonalnum(persons[0].last_names))
|
||||
0
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/names/__init__.py
Normal file
0
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/names/__init__.py
Normal file
39
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/names/firstlast.py
Normal file
39
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/names/firstlast.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
|
|||
# -*- coding:Utf-8 -*-
|
||||
from __future__ import unicode_literals
|
||||
|
||||
from pybtex.style.names import BaseNameStyle, name_part
|
||||
from pybtex.style.template import join
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class NameStyle(BaseNameStyle):
|
||||
|
||||
def format(self, person, abbr=False):
|
||||
r"""
|
||||
Format names similarly to {vv~}{ll}{, jj}{, f.} in BibTeX.
|
||||
|
||||
>>> from pybtex.database import Person
|
||||
>>> name = Person(string=r"Charles Louis Xavier Joseph de la Vall{\'e}e Poussin")
|
||||
>>> firstlast = NameStyle().format
|
||||
|
||||
>>> print(firstlast(name).format().render_as('latex'))
|
||||
Charles Louis Xavier~Joseph de~la Vall{é}e~Poussin
|
||||
>>> print(firstlast(name).format().render_as('html'))
|
||||
Charles Louis Xavier Joseph de la Vall<span class="bibtex-protected">é</span>e Poussin
|
||||
|
||||
>>> print(firstlast(name, abbr=True).format().render_as('latex'))
|
||||
C.~L. X.~J. de~la Vall{é}e~Poussin
|
||||
>>> print(firstlast(name, abbr=True).format().render_as('html'))
|
||||
C. L. X. J. de la Vall<span class="bibtex-protected">é</span>e Poussin
|
||||
|
||||
>>> name = Person(first='First', last='Last', middle='Middle')
|
||||
>>> print(firstlast(name).format().render_as('latex'))
|
||||
First~Middle Last
|
||||
>>> print(firstlast(name, abbr=True).format().render_as('latex'))
|
||||
F.~M. Last
|
||||
|
||||
"""
|
||||
return join[
|
||||
name_part(abbr=abbr)[person.rich_first_names + person.rich_middle_names],
|
||||
name_part(before=' ')[person.rich_prelast_names],
|
||||
name_part(before=' ')[person.rich_last_names],
|
||||
]
|
||||
27
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/setup.py
Normal file
27
book/_ext/pybtexapastyle/setup.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
|
|||
import setuptools
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
setuptools.setup(
|
||||
name='pybtex-apa-style',
|
||||
version='1.3',
|
||||
author='Naeka',
|
||||
author_email='contact@naeka.fr',
|
||||
description='Pybtex APA-like style',
|
||||
url='https://github.com/naeka/pybtex-apa-style',
|
||||
py_modules=['formatting.apa', 'labels.apa', 'names.firstlast'],
|
||||
entry_points={
|
||||
'pybtex.style.formatting': 'apa = formatting.apa:APAStyle',
|
||||
'pybtex.style.labels': 'apa = labels.apa:LabelStyle',
|
||||
'pybtex.style.names': 'firstlast = names.firstlast:NameStyle',
|
||||
},
|
||||
classifiers=(
|
||||
'Operating System :: OS Independent',
|
||||
'Programming Language :: Python',
|
||||
'Programming Language :: Python :: 2.7',
|
||||
'Programming Language :: Python :: 3',
|
||||
'License :: OSI Approved :: MIT License',
|
||||
'Operating System :: OS Independent',
|
||||
'Topic :: Text Processing :: Markup',
|
||||
'Topic :: Utilities',
|
||||
),
|
||||
)
|
||||
46
book/_toc.yml
Normal file
46
book/_toc.yml
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
|||
format: jb-book
|
||||
root: intro.md
|
||||
parts:
|
||||
- caption: Contents
|
||||
chapters:
|
||||
- file: prob-design/overview.md
|
||||
sections:
|
||||
- file: prob-design/01-one-random-variable.md
|
||||
- file: prob-design/02-two-random-variables.md
|
||||
# - file: prob-design/example-river-system.md
|
||||
- file: risk-analysis/overview.md
|
||||
sections:
|
||||
- file: risk-analysis/definition.md
|
||||
- file: risk-analysis/steps.md
|
||||
- file: risk-analysis/risk-curves.md
|
||||
- file: reliability-component/overview.md
|
||||
sections:
|
||||
- file: reliability-component/contamination.ipynb
|
||||
# sections:
|
||||
# - file: reliability-component/case-two-loads.md
|
||||
# - file: reliability-component/case-r-s.md
|
||||
- file: reliability-system/overview.md
|
||||
sections:
|
||||
# - file: reliability-system/system-series.md
|
||||
# - file: reliability-system/system-parallel.md
|
||||
- file: reliability-system/exercise-simple-city.md
|
||||
- file: risk-evaluation/overview.md
|
||||
sections:
|
||||
- file: risk-evaluation/decision.md
|
||||
- file: risk-evaluation/cost-benefit.md
|
||||
- file: risk-evaluation/econ-optimization.md
|
||||
- file: risk-evaluation/example-dike-height.md
|
||||
- file: risk-evaluation/safety-standards.md
|
||||
- file: exercises/overview.md
|
||||
sections:
|
||||
- file: exercises/exercise-fn-curve.md
|
||||
- file: exercises/exercise-paint.md
|
||||
- file: exercises/exercise-dam.md
|
||||
- file: exercises/exercise-sample-exam.md
|
||||
# - file: notebooks/overview.md
|
||||
# sections:
|
||||
# - file: notebooks/flood-risk/Exercise_Flood_Risk_Render.ipynb
|
||||
# - file: notebooks/contamination/Exercise_Contamination_Render.ipynb
|
||||
# - file: notebooks/traffic/Exercise_Traffic_Render.ipynb
|
||||
- file: references.md
|
||||
- file: credits.md
|
||||
12
book/code/cosinewave.py
Normal file
12
book/code/cosinewave.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
|||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
|
||||
x = np.linspace(0, 2*np.pi, endpoint=True)
|
||||
y = np.cos(x)
|
||||
|
||||
plt.figure()
|
||||
plt.plot(x, y)
|
||||
plt.title('$y=\cos(x)$')
|
||||
plt.xlabel('$x$')
|
||||
plt.ylabel('$y$')
|
||||
plt.savefig('cosinewave.svg')
|
||||
38
book/code/ex_FN_curve_step_01.py
Normal file
38
book/code/ex_FN_curve_step_01.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
|
|||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
from mpl_toolkits.axisartist.axislines import AxesZero
|
||||
|
||||
# Probability density/mass function
|
||||
|
||||
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(8,6))
|
||||
ax = fig.add_subplot(axes_class=AxesZero)
|
||||
|
||||
for direction in ["xzero", "yzero"]:
|
||||
ax.axis[direction].set_axisline_style("-|>") # add arrows
|
||||
ax.axis[direction].set_visible(True) # x and y from origin
|
||||
|
||||
for direction in ["left", "right", "bottom", "top"]:
|
||||
ax.axis[direction].set_visible(False) # hide borders
|
||||
|
||||
N_fatalities = ['0', '10', '100']
|
||||
N_fatalities_loc = [0.05, 0.30, 0.66]
|
||||
|
||||
pdf = ['0.989', '$10^{-2}$', '$10^{-3}$']
|
||||
pdf_loc = [0.99, 0.66, 0.33]
|
||||
|
||||
ax.bar(N_fatalities_loc, pdf_loc, width=0.05, color= 'lightcyan', edgecolor='k')
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(N_fatalities_loc)
|
||||
ax.set_xticklabels(N_fatalities)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_yticks(pdf_loc)
|
||||
ax.set_yticklabels(pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_title('Probability density/mass function, $f_{N}(n)$', x=0.6, y=1.0)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel('Fatalities')
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('Probability')
|
||||
|
||||
ax.axhline(y=0.66, xmin= 0.01, xmax= 0.40, linewidth=1, linestyle='dashed', color='k') # add dashed horizontal lines
|
||||
ax.axhline(y=0.33, xmin= 0.01, xmax= 0.90, linewidth=1, linestyle='dashed', color='k')
|
||||
|
||||
plt.savefig('ex_FN_curve_step_01_py.svg')
|
||||
38
book/code/ex_FN_curve_step_02.py
Normal file
38
book/code/ex_FN_curve_step_02.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
|
|||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
from mpl_toolkits.axisartist.axislines import AxesZero
|
||||
|
||||
# Cumulative Distribution Function
|
||||
|
||||
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(8,6))
|
||||
ax = fig.add_subplot(axes_class=AxesZero)
|
||||
|
||||
for direction in ["xzero", "yzero"]:
|
||||
ax.axis[direction].set_axisline_style("-|>") # add arrows
|
||||
ax.axis[direction].set_visible(True) # x and y from origin
|
||||
|
||||
for direction in ["left", "right", "bottom", "top"]:
|
||||
ax.axis[direction].set_visible(False) # hide borders
|
||||
|
||||
N_fatalities = ['0', '10', '100', '']
|
||||
N_fatalities_loc = [0.03, 0.33, 0.76, 0.95]
|
||||
|
||||
pdf = ['0', '0.989', '0.999', '1']
|
||||
pdf_loc = [0.03, 0.66, 0.86, 0.99]
|
||||
|
||||
ax.step(N_fatalities_loc, pdf_loc, color= 'darkblue',linewidth=4)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(N_fatalities_loc)
|
||||
ax.set_xticklabels(N_fatalities)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_yticks(pdf_loc)
|
||||
ax.set_yticklabels(pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_title('Cumulative distribution function, $F_{N}(n) = P(N \leq n)$', x=0.55, y=1.0)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel('Fatalities')
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('Probability')
|
||||
|
||||
ax.text(0.8, 0.9, r'} $10^{-3}$', fontsize=20)
|
||||
ax.text(0.4, 0.725, r'} $10^{-2}$', fontsize=30)
|
||||
|
||||
plt.savefig('ex_FN_curve_step_02_py.svg')
|
||||
35
book/code/ex_FN_curve_step_03.py
Normal file
35
book/code/ex_FN_curve_step_03.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
|
|||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
from mpl_toolkits.axisartist.axislines import AxesZero
|
||||
|
||||
# FN curve
|
||||
|
||||
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(8,6))
|
||||
ax = fig.add_subplot(axes_class=AxesZero)
|
||||
|
||||
for direction in ["xzero", "yzero"]:
|
||||
ax.axis[direction].set_axisline_style("-|>") # add arrows
|
||||
ax.axis[direction].set_visible(True) # x and y from origin
|
||||
|
||||
for direction in ["left", "right", "bottom", "top"]:
|
||||
ax.axis[direction].set_visible(False) # hide borders
|
||||
|
||||
N_fatalities = ['0', '10', '100','100']
|
||||
N_fatalities_loc = [0.03,0.33, 0.95, 0.95]
|
||||
|
||||
pdf = ['0','$1.1 * 10^{-2}$', '$10^{-3}$','0']
|
||||
pdf_loc = [0.03,0.99, 0.66, 0.03]
|
||||
|
||||
ax.step(N_fatalities_loc, pdf_loc, color= 'darkblue',linewidth=4)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(N_fatalities_loc)
|
||||
ax.set_xticklabels(N_fatalities)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_yticks(pdf_loc)
|
||||
ax.set_yticklabels(pdf)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_title('FN curve, $1-F_{N}(n) = P(N > n)$', x=0.75, y=1.0)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel('Fatalities')
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel('Probability')
|
||||
|
||||
plt.savefig('ex_FN_curve_step_03_py.svg')
|
||||
16
book/code/present_value.py
Normal file
16
book/code/present_value.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
|
|||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
|
||||
t = np.linspace(0, 101)
|
||||
y_2 = 1 / (1 + 0.02)**t
|
||||
y_4 = 1 / (1 + 0.04)**t
|
||||
|
||||
fig = plt.figure()
|
||||
plt.plot(t, y_2, label='2%')
|
||||
plt.plot(t, y_4, label='4%')
|
||||
plt.grid()
|
||||
plt.legend()
|
||||
plt.xlabel('Year')
|
||||
plt.ylabel('Normalized Present Value [$-$]')
|
||||
|
||||
plt.savefig('present_value_py.svg')
|
||||
54
book/code/risk_types.py
Normal file
54
book/code/risk_types.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,54 @@
|
|||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
|
||||
# Given Parameters
|
||||
|
||||
N_fatalities = np.linspace(1,1000,1000) # fatalities
|
||||
|
||||
P_df = 0.1; beta = 0.1
|
||||
|
||||
alpha = 2
|
||||
k = 3
|
||||
N_A = 100
|
||||
|
||||
r= 0.025
|
||||
I = 5*10**6
|
||||
B = 0.33
|
||||
|
||||
# Individual Risk
|
||||
|
||||
Pf_ind_risk = (beta*(10**-4))/P_df # per year
|
||||
|
||||
# print('Acceptable Failure Probability: ', Pf_ind_risk)
|
||||
|
||||
# Societal Risk
|
||||
|
||||
C = ((beta*100)/(k*np.sqrt(N_A)))**2 # binomial distribution
|
||||
|
||||
Pf_SR = (C/(N_fatalities**alpha))
|
||||
|
||||
# Economic Risk
|
||||
|
||||
D_damage = (5*10**7)*N_fatalities
|
||||
|
||||
Pf_ER = (I*B*r)/(D_damage)
|
||||
|
||||
# Visualize
|
||||
|
||||
my_linewidth = 4
|
||||
|
||||
plt.figure(figsize=(8,6))
|
||||
|
||||
plt.yscale('log')
|
||||
plt.xscale('log')
|
||||
plt.plot(N_fatalities, Pf_SR, linewidth=my_linewidth, label='Societal Risk')
|
||||
plt.plot(N_fatalities,Pf_ER, linewidth=my_linewidth, color='r', label='Economic Risk')
|
||||
plt.axhline(Pf_ind_risk, linewidth=my_linewidth, color='g', label='Individual Risk')
|
||||
|
||||
plt.ylabel('Probability of Exceedance, $1-F_N(n)$')
|
||||
plt.xlabel('Fatalities, N')
|
||||
plt.ylim(10**(-7),1)
|
||||
|
||||
plt.legend(loc='upper right')
|
||||
|
||||
plt.savefig('risk_types_py.svg')
|
||||
12
book/code/sinewave.py
Normal file
12
book/code/sinewave.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
|
|||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
|
||||
x = np.linspace(0, 2*np.pi, endpoint=True)
|
||||
y = np.sin(x)
|
||||
|
||||
plt.figure()
|
||||
plt.plot(x, y)
|
||||
plt.title('$y=\sin(x)$')
|
||||
plt.xlabel('$x$')
|
||||
plt.ylabel('$y$')
|
||||
plt.savefig('sinewave.svg')
|
||||
23
book/code/test.py
Normal file
23
book/code/test.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
|||
import modulefinder
|
||||
|
||||
finder = modulefinder.ModuleFinder()
|
||||
finder.run_script('cosinewave.py')
|
||||
|
||||
moduleslist = {}
|
||||
for name, mod in finder.modules.iteritems():
|
||||
filename = mod.__file__
|
||||
if filename is None:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if '__' in name:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
#if "python" in filename.lower():
|
||||
# continue
|
||||
moduleslist[name.split(".")[0]] = True
|
||||
#print '%s: %s' % (name, filename)
|
||||
#print ','.join(mod.globalnames.keys()[:3])
|
||||
|
||||
print('Loaded modules:')
|
||||
for name, dummy in moduleslist.iteritems():
|
||||
print(name)
|
||||
|
||||
input("Press Enter to continue...")
|
||||
44
book/credits.md
Normal file
44
book/credits.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
|
|||
(credits)=
|
||||
# Credits and License
|
||||
|
||||
You can refer to this book as:
|
||||
|
||||
> Lanzafame, R. (2024) _Risk and Reliability for Engineers_, TU Delft Open, 2024, doi XXXXXXXX.
|
||||
|
||||
The introduction, structure of the book and formatting of contents is done by the Editor, Robert Lanzafame. Some chapters and pages have additional primary authors who are identified within the book either at the bottom of the first page in a chapter, or at the bottom of an individual page, as necessary. If an author is not listed on a particular page, it is Robert Lanzafame.
|
||||
|
||||
You can refer to individual chapters or pages within this book as:
|
||||
|
||||
> `<Primary Author>` (2024) `<Title of Chapter or Page>`. In Robert Lanzafame (Ed.), _Risk and Reliability for Engineers._ TU Delft Open, 2024, doi XXXXXXXX.
|
||||
|
||||
Although content will be added over time, chapter titles and URL's in this book are expected to remain relatively static. However, we make no guarantee, so if it is important for you to reference a specific location within the book, we recommend including the complete URL and date of access in your reference.
|
||||
|
||||
## How the book is made
|
||||
|
||||
This book is created using open source tools: it is a Jupyter Book that is written using Markdown, Jupyter notebooks and Python files to generate some figures. The files are stored on a [public GitLab repository of TU Delft](https://gitlab.tudelft.nl/interactivetextbooks-citg/risk-and-reliability/). The published version of this book is compiled from a special branch (`xxxxxxxx`). View the repository README file or contact the author for additional information.
|
||||
|
||||
(editor)=
|
||||
## About the Editor
|
||||
|
||||
Robert Lanzafame.
|
||||
|
||||
### Acknowledgements
|
||||
|
||||
This book uses adapted excerpts from the lecture notes of a previous course, CIE4130 Probabilistic Design, which was last taught at Delft University of Technology in 2022. In particular, parts of the risk analysis and most of the risk evaluation chapters reuse modified material from Professor Bas Jonkman. This book, and the included exercises, would not be possible without the efforts of many CIE4130 teachers over the last decades (in alphabetical order): Bas Jonkman, Han Vrijling, Oswaldo Morales Napoles, Pieter van Gelder, Raphaël Steenbergen, Robert Lanzafame, Ton Vrouwenvelder.
|
||||
|
||||
Many people provide technical support to enable teachers at the faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences (CEG) to develop books for improving the learning experience of our students, especially via development of the MUDE Module (CEGM1000) and through the activities of our teaching assistants. For additional information on books at CEG, contact Robert Lanzafame or Tom van Woudenberg at `books-CEG` AT `tudelft.nl` or visit [interactivetextbooks.citg.tudelft.nl](https://interactivetextbooks.citg.tudelft.nl/). Financial support has been generously granted by the CEG faculty via various grants and discretionary funds.
|
||||
|
||||
Special thanks goes to Caspar Jungbacker, who set up the JupyterBook and GitHub repository to make this book and website possible; Benjamin Ramousse, who brought the bivariate "patterns" to life with Python; and ; Thirza Feenstra, who, along with Caspar and Robert, thought that this whole Jupyter Book thing was a "good idea."
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
This book is licensed under a <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.
|
||||
|
||||
<a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png"/></a>
|
||||
|
||||
The following items referenced in the text are _not_ included in the license:
|
||||
|
||||
{numref}`risk-curve-baecher` and {numref}`risk-curve-baecher-2` are from {cite:t}`baecher2003`, based on {cite:t}`baecher1982` and described in {cite:t}`baecher2021`
|
||||
|
||||
{numref}`risk_matrix` is from an online PDF document (located [here](https://home.army.mil/lee/application/files/7815/3809/1878/Tables.pdf)). The formal definition for the risk matrix can be found in Engineering Manual EM 385-1-1 (located [here](https://www.publications.usace.army.mil/portals/76/publications/engineermanuals/em_385-1-1.pdf)).
|
||||
|
||||
204
book/exercises/example-quiz.json
Normal file
204
book/exercises/example-quiz.json
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,204 @@
|
|||
[
|
||||
{
|
||||
"question": "Choose all of the following that can be included in Jupyter notebooks?",
|
||||
"type": "many_choice",
|
||||
"answers": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "Text and graphics output from Python",
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "Correct."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "Typeset mathematics",
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "Correct."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "Python executable code",
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "Correct."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "Formatted text",
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "Correct."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "Live snakes via Python",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "I hope not."
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"question": "Which of these are used to create formatted text in Jupyter notebooks?",
|
||||
"type": "multiple_choice",
|
||||
"answers": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "Wiki markup",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "False."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "SVG",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "False."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "Markdown",
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "Correct."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "Rich Text",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "False."
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"question": "Enter the value of $\\pi$ to 2 decimal places.",
|
||||
"type": "numeric",
|
||||
"answers": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"type": "value",
|
||||
"value": 3.14,
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "Correct."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"type": "range",
|
||||
"range": [
|
||||
3.142857,
|
||||
3.142858
|
||||
],
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "True to 2 decimal places, but you know $\\pi$ is not really 22/7, right?"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"type": "range",
|
||||
"range": [
|
||||
-100000000,
|
||||
0
|
||||
],
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "$\\pi$ is the AREA of a circle of radius 1. Try again."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"type": "default",
|
||||
"feedback": "$\\pi$ is the area of a circle of radius 1. Try again."
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"question": "Enter the value of $\\pi$ to 2 decimal places.",
|
||||
"type": "numeric",
|
||||
"precision": 2,
|
||||
"answers": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"type": "value",
|
||||
"value": 3.14,
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "Correct."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"type": "range",
|
||||
"range": [
|
||||
3.142857,
|
||||
3.142858
|
||||
],
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "True to 2 decimal places, but you know $\\pi$ is not really 22/7, right?"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"type": "range",
|
||||
"range": [
|
||||
-100000000,
|
||||
0
|
||||
],
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "$\\pi$ is the AREA of a circle of radius 1. Try again."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"type": "default",
|
||||
"feedback": "$\\pi$ is the area of a circle of radius 1. Try again."
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"question": "Determine the output of the following Python code:",
|
||||
"code": "a=\"1\"\nb=\"2\"\nprint(a+b)",
|
||||
"type": "multiple_choice",
|
||||
"answers": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "1",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "No. When strings are operated on by +, they are concatenated."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "2",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "No. When strings are operated on by +, they are concatenated."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "3",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "No. When strings are operated on by +, they are concatenated."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "12",
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "Yes. The + operator will concatenate the strings \"1\" and \"2\"."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "error",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "No. The + operator for strings performs string concatenation."
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"question": "The variable mylist is a Python list. Choose which code snippet will append the item 3 to mylist.",
|
||||
"type": "multiple_choice",
|
||||
"answers": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"code": "mylist+=3",
|
||||
"correct": false
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"code": "mylist+=[3]",
|
||||
"correct": true
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"code": "mylist+={3}",
|
||||
"correct": false
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"question": "Which of these is the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter?",
|
||||
"type": "multiple_choice",
|
||||
"answers": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "$\\pi$",
|
||||
"correct": true,
|
||||
"feedback": "Correct."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "$\\frac{22}{7}$",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "$\\frac{22}{7}$ is only an approximation to the true value."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "3",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "This is a crude approximation to the true value."
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"answer": "$\\tau$",
|
||||
"correct": false,
|
||||
"feedback": "True for the ratio of the circle's circumference to its radius, not diameter."
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
154
book/exercises/exercise-dam.md
Normal file
154
book/exercises/exercise-dam.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
|
|||
# Dam and River
|
||||
|
||||
You are tasked to analyse the safety of a dam and the downstream river system. Downstream of the dam there is a dike ring protected by two main dike sections which must be able to contain water released from the reservoir. The dike sections are connected to each other and form a continuous boundary along the same side of the river. Let $P(F_1)=0.01$ and $P(F_2)=0.01$ denote failure probability of dike section 1 and section 2 respectively. There appears to be a correlation between failures of both sections, $\rho_{1,2}=0.9$, and the figure below shows the effect of the correlation coefficient on the joint failure of the two sections.
|
||||
|
||||
%commented paragraphs were used for an exam question with a fault tree
|
||||
|
||||
%You are tasked to analyse the safety of a dam. The dam itself can fail due to instability, and another failure mechanism is failure of the spillway due to uncontrolled erosion that could reach the body of the dam. If water levels in the reservoir become high, water is released from the reservoir into the spillway due to overflow, which happens approximately once every 10 years.
|
||||
|
||||
%When water is released through spillway, there are two situations that could lead to a weak spillway prone to erosion and failure: 1) hidden damage to the spillway structure that cannot be detected in yearly inspections, and 2) a crack in the concrete of the spillway which has been missed during the yearly inspection.
|
||||
|
||||
%Downstream of the dam there is an area protected by two main dike sections which must be able to contain water released from the reservoir. A dike section fails if the river discharge exceeds a critical discharge $Q_c$ with a probability of exceedance of 1/100 per year, which leads to flooding of the area. There appears to be a correlation between failures of both sections, $\rho_{1,2}=0.9$, and the figure below shows the effect of the correlation coefficient on the joint failure of the two sections.
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/system-corr-coeff.PNG
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 400px
|
||||
name: corr-coeff-or
|
||||
---
|
||||
Effect of correlation coefficient joint failure, $P(A \cap B)$ (assume that $P(A \cap B)=0.003$ at $\rho=+0.9$, where the arrow is located).
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 1:** Estimate the probability of flooding of the area protected by the two dike sections. Assume that the failure probability of each mechanism is 0.01, and they are _not_ independent; however, you can use the figure above to quantify this.
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Flooding of the protected area occurs when at least one of the two dike section fails. This is a series system. Thus, probability of flooding of the protected area can be determined by:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
P(\textrm{flooding}) &= P(\textrm{dike sections 1 fails}\:\cup \textrm{dike section 2 fails})\\
|
||||
P(F_1 \cup F_2) &= P(F_1) + P(F_2) - P(F_1 \cap F_2)
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
Based on the figure and the correlation $\rho_{1,2} = 0.9$, the joint probability of failure $P(F_1 \cap F_2)=0.003$ and the series failure probability is
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
P(\textrm{flooding}) = 0.01 + 0.01 - 0.003 = 0.017 \: \mathrm{/year}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
## Dam repair: probabilistic planning
|
||||
|
||||
The dam has to be repaired. The responsible minister wants to make sure the whole project is finished within 12 months, and only accepts a probability of 10% that actual construction works exceed this duration. The dam reinforcement consists of two activities. The second activity can only start when the first one has been finished. The durations of both activities are uncertain and normally distributed. The first activity has a mean duration of $\mu_1=4$ months and a standard deviation of $\sigma_1 = 1$ month; for the second activity $\sigma_2 = 2$ months.
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 2:** Compute the mean duration of the activity 2, so that the project duration would fall within the criterion given by the minister.
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Let $T_1$ and $T_2$ denote the duration of activities 1 and 2; $T$ denotes the total duration; $T_1$ and $T_2$ are normally distributed:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
T_1 \sim \mathcal{N}(
|
||||
\mu_1=4,\sigma_1=1) \\
|
||||
T_2 \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu_2=?,\sigma_2=2)
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
$T = T1 + T2$ is also normally distributed, where
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
\mu_T &= \mu_1 + \mu_2 \\
|
||||
\sigma_T &= \sqrt{\sigma_1^2 + \sigma_2^2} = \sqrt{5} = 2.326
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
The probability of project duration greater than 12 months can be found with the complementary standard normal CDF, and should be a maximum of 0.1:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
1-\Phi\left[\frac{12\:\mathrm{months}-\mu_T}{\sigma_T}\right]=0.1
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
Applying the inverse CDF allows us to solve for $\mu_1$:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
\frac{12-\mu_T}{\sigma_T} &=\Phi^{-1}[0.9] \\
|
||||
\frac{12-(\mu_1 + \mu_2)}{\sigma_T} &=1.2816
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
\mu_1 &= 12 - 1.2816 \cdot \sigma_T - \mu_2 \\
|
||||
\mu_1 &= 12 - 1.282(2.326) - 4 = 5.018\:\mathrm{months}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- Limit state equation: total duration of constuction will not exceed 12 months, thus:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
Z = 12 - (T_1 + T_2)
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
The event $Z<0$ reflects that the actual construction works exceed the duration the minister want (12 months). It is acceptable that the actual construction works exceed this duration with a probability of 10%. Thus: $P(Z<0) = 0.1$. This leads to $\beta_z = 1.28155$
|
||||
|
||||
Application of Level II reliability calculation:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
\mu_z = 12 - (\mu_1 + \mu_2) = 8 - \mu_2 \\
|
||||
\sigma_z = \sqrt{\sigma_1^2 + \sigma_2^2} = \sqrt{5} = 2.326 \\
|
||||
8 - \mu_2 = \beta_z \cdot \sigma_z = 2.86 \\
|
||||
\mu_2 = 5.13 \: \mathrm{months}
|
||||
$$ -->
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
## Acceptable risk
|
||||
|
||||
The government wants to study the acceptable risk and the acceptable probability of dam failure. Two criteria are used for acceptable risk:
|
||||
|
||||
- Societal risk (SR): an FN limit line: $P_f \leq 10^{-2}/n^2$.
|
||||
- Individual risk (IR): $IR \leq 10^{-4}$ per year.
|
||||
|
||||
We know that mortality in case of dam failure is $F_{d|f} = 0.1$ and that the population living downstream of the dam is 1000 people.
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 3:** Plot the FN limit line and indicate the acceptable probability of failure according to both criteria (individual risk, societal risk).
|
||||
|
||||
````{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise-dam-fn-limit-line.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 500px
|
||||
---
|
||||
```
|
||||
````
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 4:** Provide an advice on the acceptable probability of failure for the dam. Give the proposed numerical value and a short motivation.
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Based on individual risk criterion, we have:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
IR = P_f P_{d|f} \leq IR_{acc}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
where $P_{d|f}=0.1$. Hence, the acceptable probability of failure is:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
P_f \leq \frac{IR_{acc}}{P_{d|f}} = \frac{10^{-4}}{0.1} = 10^{-3} \: \mathrm{/year}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
Based on societal risk criterion (FN-Curve):
|
||||
|
||||
Acceptable failure probability can be determined by the FN-Curve:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
P_f = 1 - F_N(n) \leq \frac{C}{n^\alpha} = \frac{10^{-2}}{n^2}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
Based on given information above, expected number of casualties per dam failure event is $n = F_{d|f}\cdot 1000 = 100$.
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
P_f &\leq \frac{10^{-2}}{100^2} \\
|
||||
P_f &= 10^{-6} \: \mathrm{/year}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
The most stringent of the two criteria applies, so the proposed safety standard would be $10^{-6}$ per year for the given inputs.
|
||||
```
|
||||
68
book/exercises/exercise-fn-curve.md
Normal file
68
book/exercises/exercise-fn-curve.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
|
|||
(ex_fn_curve)=
|
||||
# FN Curve
|
||||
|
||||
A small town is located in a seismic region threatened by two faults. Fault A has a 10% probability of occurring each year, which would cause 10 fatalities, and Fault B has a 1% chance of occurring, which would cause 100 fatalities. Construct an FN curve for the town. Assume that the town is risk averse and that the tolerable risk limit is governed using a constant of C=1.
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 1:** Compute the expected annual fatalities for the town.
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
E(N) = P_1 \cdot N_1 + P_2 \cdot N_2 = 0.1 \cdot 10 + 0.01 \cdot 100 = 2
|
||||
$$
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 2:** If the town improved the safety of its buildings, what would be the maximum allowable number of fatalities that would be considered acceptable due to an earthquake on fault A?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Using the limit curve
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
1 - F_n(n) = C / n^\alpha
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
0.1 = 1 / n^2
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
n = \sqrt{10} \approx 3
|
||||
$$
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 3:** What is the maximum value for the probability of an earthquake on Fault B that would be considered acceptable by the town?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Using the limit curve
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
1 - F_n(n) = C / n^\alpha
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
1 - F_n(100) = C / 100^2 = 0.0001 = 10^{-4}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 4:** Create an FN curve for this situation, including the limit line. Be sure to clearly label the axes and the values of key points on your diagram.
|
||||
|
||||
```{note}
|
||||
If you are not sure what the limit line is, wait for this question until you read the Safety Standards Section (Risk Evaluation chapter).
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
````{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise-FN-curve.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 600px
|
||||
name: FN-curve
|
||||
---
|
||||
FN-curve for exercise 4
|
||||
```
|
||||
````
|
||||
173
book/exercises/exercise-paint.md
Normal file
173
book/exercises/exercise-paint.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,173 @@
|
|||
# Paint System
|
||||
|
||||
In this assignment we will consider a paint system that prevents rust and corrosion on a steel structure. A high quality paint system costs €40 per square meter and has a failure probability of 0.002, which assumes that the old paint system is completely stripped off and the steel surface is cleaned prior to installation, which has an additional cost of €20 per square meter.
|
||||
|
||||
Common cost cutting measures are to use a cheaper paint that costs half as much, but is five times more likely to fail, or to simply sand the old paint rather than stripping it off prior to applying a new paint, which increases the failure probability by 10, but only costs €5 per square meter.
|
||||
|
||||
During operation of the structure, if a rust spot is found it must be repaired immediately by removing the damaged paint and replacing it. The repair has an additional cost of €500 per square meter.
|
||||
|
||||
Construct a decision tree to evaluate the different options for steel preparation and paint, then use it to answer the following questions. Assume that the owner wants to minimize total costs, that the paint system only fails once in any reference period and that the probability of failure in each year is independent. All costs and probabilities are calculated on a square meter basis.
|
||||
|
||||
%**Question 6:** Upload a photo/scan of your decision tree. Make sure the values and parameters for each branch are clear.
|
||||
|
||||
````{admonition} Decision Tree
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
This problem can be visualized using a decision tree as shown below. However, it results in a different interpretation of the problem than that shown in the solution. For example, consider the top branch at the far right, where 'No rust spot' is assigned a probability of 0.998. This is consistent with the formulation of a decision tree, but not consistent with the problem statement, which implies that the €60 cost associated with cleaning and painting is always done when replacing the paint system (thus a probability of 1.0). This is why the values in the decision tree are slightly different than those in Question 3, for example.
|
||||
|
||||
Although the decision tree is not part of the exam, this illustrates an important lesson: it is very easy to accidentally make probability calculations that are inconsistent with the situation you are trying to evaluate!
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise-decision-tree.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 600px
|
||||
name: decision-tree
|
||||
---
|
||||
Decision tree.
|
||||
```
|
||||
````
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 1:** What is the probability of each paint system failure per square meter over one year?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
| Paint | Cleaning | $p_f$ [1/yr] |
|
||||
|------- |--- | --- |
|
||||
| High-Quality | Stripping | 0.002 |
|
||||
| High-Quality | Sanding | 0.02 |
|
||||
| Low-Quality | Stripping | 0.01 |
|
||||
| Low-Quality | Sanding | 0.10 |
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 2:** What is the probability of each paint system failure per square meter over a 10 year period?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
$$P_{f,10y} = 1 - (1 - p_{f,1y})^{10}$$
|
||||
|
||||
| Paint | Cleaning | $p_f$ [1/10-yr] |
|
||||
|------- |--- | --- |
|
||||
| High-Quality | Stripping | 0.02 |
|
||||
| High-Quality | Sanding | 0.18 |
|
||||
| Low-Quality | Stripping | 0.10 |
|
||||
| Low-Quality | Sanding | 0.65 |
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 3:** What is the expected cost per square meter over a one year period if the owner uses the high quality cleaning and high quality paint?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
40 + 20 + 0.002 \cdot (500 + 40 + 20) = \euro{} 61.12 /\mathrm{m^2}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 4:** What is the optimal paint system for a one year period?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
$$C_{paint} + C_{cleaning} + P_{f,1y} \cdot (C_{paint} + C_{cleaning} + C_{repair})$$
|
||||
|
||||
| Paint | Cleaning | Expected cost [€/yr] |
|
||||
|------- |--- | --- |
|
||||
| High-Quality | Stripping | 61.12 |
|
||||
| High-Quality | Sanding | 55.90 |
|
||||
| Low-Quality | Stripping | **45.40** |
|
||||
| Low-Quality | Sanding | 77.50 |
|
||||
|
||||
Low Quality Paint + High Quality Cleaning
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 5:** What is the optimal paint system for a 10 year period?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
$$C_{paint} + C_{cleaning} + P_{f,10y} \cdot (C_{paint} + C_{cleaning} + C_{repair})$$
|
||||
|
||||
| Paint | Cleaning | Expected cost [€/10 yr] |
|
||||
|------- |--- | --- |
|
||||
| High-Quality | Stripping | **71.10** |
|
||||
| High-Quality | Sanding | 144.70 |
|
||||
| Low-Quality | Stripping | 91.63 |
|
||||
| Low-Quality | Sanding | 366.94 |
|
||||
|
||||
High Quality Paint + High Quality Cleaning
|
||||
|
||||
**NOTE:** If you're getting slightly different results, don't panic! Most likely you have approximated the probabilities computed above in question 2.
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Assume the owner has decided to use the cheap paint system, and is simply going to sand it off (i.e. the cheap cleaning method) and re-apply the same system every year (i.e., for these problems consider a 1-year reference period). You have been asked to assess whether it is worthwhile to use a quick sonic test system to prevent failures during the year, and if it is, the number of tests that should be performed per year. Each test costs about €3 per m2, and if a weak spot is found, a new layer of paint can be easily applied, lowering the failure probability by a factor of 0.50.
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 6:** What is the annual expected cost due to paint failure if no sonic inspections are done?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
E(D) = P_f \cdot D = 0.1 \cdot 525 = 52.50
|
||||
$$
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 7:** What is the annual expected total cost for the paint system if no sonic inspections are done?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Using the decision tree from above: €77.50/m2
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 8:** What is the change in risk for 3 sonic inspections?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
\Delta E(D) = (P_{f,0} - P_{f,new}) \cdot D = 45.94
|
||||
$$
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 9:** What is the annual expected cost due to paint failure if 3 sonic inspections are done?
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
The expected damage is:
|
||||
$$
|
||||
E(D)=P_f \cdot D={0.5}^3 \cdot 0.1 \cdot 525=6.56
|
||||
$$
|
||||
But the 3 inspections cost €9, thus the total expected cost is €15.56. It is incorrect to multiply the inspection cost by the failure probability. NB: this calculation implies the inspections occur regardles of when the failure happens.
|
||||
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 10:** What is the maximum number of inspections per year that can be performed that are cost-effective? Note: Round your answer towards the smallest integer.
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
For the investments to be cost effective:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
\frac{\Delta E(D)}{I}>1
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
Which results in a maximum of 17 inspections per year.
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 11:** What is the optimum number of sonic inspections to perform each year? Plot a graph, with the Risk, Investment and Total cost curves and clearly indicate the optimum.
|
||||
|
||||
````{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
As shown in the figure, the optimum is 3 per year.
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise-optimization.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 600px
|
||||
name: optimization-curve
|
||||
---
|
||||
Optimization curve for exercise 12
|
||||
```
|
||||
````
|
||||
248
book/exercises/exercise-sample-exam.md
Normal file
248
book/exercises/exercise-sample-exam.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,248 @@
|
|||
# Sample Exam Questions
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- ```{admonition} Sample Exam Answers
|
||||
:class: tip
|
||||
|
||||
Answers to the sample exam will be made available on this page after Monday of Week 2.8.
|
||||
``` -->
|
||||
## General Questions
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 1:** Indicate which of the following statements is true (multiple answers possible):
|
||||
1. A parallel system gets stronger if there is a strong positive correlation between failure of the elements.
|
||||
2. Dependence between elements is only determined by dependence in loads.
|
||||
3. In case of a full dependence between two elements $A$ and $B$, it holds that $P(B|A)=1$.
|
||||
4. A flood defence system that is a single line of defence composed of multiple dike sections would best be characterized as a series sytem, not as a parallel system.
|
||||
5. A prison with multiple walls and fences would best be characterized as a series system, not as a parallel system.
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Options 3 and 4 are true.
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
## Flood Protection for a Bay
|
||||
|
||||
A flood protection system for an area at a bay consists of a first line of defence (a dam on the coast) and a second line (a dike around the bay) to protect the city against a storm surge that can cause a high water level in the bay. The design team considers two strategies: 1) a single dike around the bay, or 2) a dike around the bay plus a dam (see figure).
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise-sample-exam-bay.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 400px
|
||||
name: flood-protection
|
||||
---
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 1:** from the perspective of flooding in the city, the function of the dam and dike together is best described as a (choose one):
|
||||
a. series system
|
||||
b. parallel system
|
||||
c. a single component
|
||||
d. none of the above
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Option b is true.
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 2:** how will dependence between the dam and dike change the system failure probability? (choose one)
|
||||
a. increase
|
||||
b. decrease
|
||||
c. no change
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Option a is true.
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 3:** describe whether or not there is dependence between the dam and dike, and what the source could be.
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
It is likely that both structures are constructed of the same material (e.g., local soil), which would respond in a similar way to the storm surge and waves. The structures are also likely to be operated and maintained by the same government agency, which would result in dependence due to human error and maintenance problems.
|
||||
```
|
||||
---
|
||||
The damage in case of flood protection system failure is 1 billion $10^9$ Euros. We compare two different investments in the system. In strategy 1 the system failure probability becomes $10^{-3}$ per year at a cost of 10 million ($10 \cdot 10^{6}$). In strategy 2 the system failure probability becomes $3 \cdot 10^{-4}$ per year at a cost of 50 million.
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 4:** for which value of the interest rate $r$ is strategy 2 the most interesting? (You may consider an infinite lifetime of investments).
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Find $r$ such that the difference in expected damage between strategy 1 and 2, $\Delta p_{f,sys}D/r$, is greater than the difference between the investments, $I_2-I_1$, where the net present value over an infinite lifetime is $1/r$.
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
r < \frac{\Delta p_{f,sys} D}{I_2-I_1} = \frac{(0.0010-0.0003)\cdot 1000 \text{m€}}{50\: \text{m€}-10\: \text{m€}}=0.0175
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
Can also set up as solving for $r$ when comparing total costs:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
I_1+\frac{p_1 D}{r}>I_2+\frac{p_2 D}{r}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
```
|
||||
---
|
||||
A full scale risk assessment is made for the system with probabilities $P(N>10)=10^{-3}$ per year and $P(N>100)=5 \cdot 10^{-5}$ per year. A so-called limit line is given with values with $C = 10^{-1}$; and $\alpha = 2$.
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 5:** determine whether this situation is acceptable. You may answer using a few sentences, calculations or by submitting a sketch, but either way, you must support your answer quantitatively. If you use a sketch, indicate the scale and relevant points on the plot.
|
||||
|
||||
````{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
First create an FN curve for the risk assessment
|
||||
|
||||
**NOTE:** _the figure below is slightly incorrect; the horizontal lines should be to the right of the "dots;" in other words, the 1E-05 value should be above N=100. This makes it more obvious why the system does not meet the safety criteria._
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise-sample-exam-limit-line.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 400px
|
||||
name: limit-line
|
||||
---
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Next, check that each point on the line is below the limit line:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
1-F_N(n)<\frac{C}{N^α}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
The probability of exceeding 100 fatalities is too high since $5E-5>0.1/100^2=1E-5$. The same is true for 10 fatalities.
|
||||
````
|
||||
---
|
||||
The flooding probability is 1/50 per year and damage is 150 million € ($10^6$). It is questioned whether additional protection is needed and what would be the best solution between the following:
|
||||
|
||||
- Strategy A: raise the dike
|
||||
- Strategy B: raise the dike and build a mangrove forest in front which reduces waves
|
||||
|
||||
The table below indicates the costs of the strategies and how much they reduce the initial failure probability. Assume the interest rate is 4%.
|
||||
|
||||
```{list-table} Mitigation Strategy A and B.
|
||||
:header-rows: 1
|
||||
|
||||
* - Strategy
|
||||
- Failure probability factor
|
||||
- Costs, million € ($10^6$)
|
||||
* - Do Nothing
|
||||
- 1.0
|
||||
- 0
|
||||
* - A
|
||||
- 0.5
|
||||
- 10
|
||||
* - B
|
||||
- 0.2
|
||||
- 18
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 6:** what is the most cost-effective or optimal strategy? Explain your answer.
|
||||
|
||||
1. Strategy A
|
||||
2. Strategy B
|
||||
3. neither A nor B
|
||||
|
||||
````{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Strategy B is best.
|
||||
|
||||
Various costs (NPV value) are calculated in the table below, and Strategy B is the lowest total cost we well as highest risk reduction.
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise_sample_opt.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 500px
|
||||
---
|
||||
```
|
||||
````
|
||||
---
|
||||
Consider the individual risk in two areas of the city by the bay, above. The acceptable individual risk is $10^{-5}$ per year. The conditional probability of death due to flooding is dependent on the water depth and indicated next to the graph. The individual risk level in area A is $10^{-5}$ per year and the water depth is 3 m. The individual risk level in area B is $10^{-5}$ per year and the water depth is 2 m.
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 7:** what should be the maximum allowable failure probability of the dike on the bay, $P_{\text{flooding}}$, to meet the standard for individual risk, $IR$?
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise-sample-exam-mortality.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 400px
|
||||
---
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
````{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
Individual risk is:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
IR = P_{\text{flooding}} \cdot P_{\text{death}|\text{flooding}}
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
where the values for the conditional term can be found using the mortality figure, and solve for $P_{\text{flooding}}$.
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise_sample_IR.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 500px
|
||||
---
|
||||
```
|
||||
The norm is governed by the most strict safety requirement, thus, $P_{\text{flooding}}$ should be 0.0002 per year.
|
||||
````
|
||||
|
||||
## Component Reliability
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
The shaded region, $\Omega$, in the figure below is the failure domain of an unknown object (the shaded zone extends further towards positive infinity for $x$ and $y$). $p_f$ is the probability of failure of that object, such that:
|
||||
|
||||
$$
|
||||
p_f = \iint_\Omega f(x,y)dxdy
|
||||
$$
|
||||
|
||||
Where $x$ and $y$ are random variables and $f(x,y)$ is the joint PDF.
|
||||
|
||||
```{figure} ../figures/exercise-sample-exam-failure-domain.png
|
||||
---
|
||||
width: 400px
|
||||
name: failure-domain
|
||||
---
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Question 1:** identify a specific real-life object of your choosing (it can be anything!) that can be described by this diagram and failure probability. Describe the object and provide a definition of failure using words only, no equations. Mention whether $X$ and $Y$ each acts as a load or a resistance.
|
||||
|
||||
```{admonition} Answer
|
||||
:class: tip, dropdown
|
||||
|
||||
It is clear that $X$ and $Y$ are both loads, since high values of both variables lead to failure. There are many possible ‘objects’ that are governed by two loads:
|
||||
|
||||
- Dike: x and y are water level and wave load, failure is excessive overtopping
|
||||
- Steel rod: 2 loads exceed strength
|
||||
- Beam: self-weight and length are loads (but this is non-linear)
|
||||
- Island: x and y are sea level rise and settlement, capacity is elevation; failure is flooding
|
||||
- 2 things on object with limiting capacity. E.g.: people on a couch or bench, birds on a tree branch
|
||||
- Literally any two loads would be acceptable, as long as the capacity of the object was a sum of both of them (if not a sum, it’s non-linear)
|
||||
%Honorable mentions: exam grading, stoof pot, student knowledge on exam material, ear damage at a music festival, dog and cat in box, exam desk stability, fingers squeezing a pen, 2 heaters in a room
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- see below for a list of examples.
|
||||
|
||||
*The following text is included in the exaplanation of this sample exam question to give extra insight; you are not expected to reproduce this on the MUDE exam:
|
||||
|
||||
The limit state is a line, which means the variables $X$ and $Y$ should have a linear relationship and can be represented as
|
||||
$$Z=y_0-(y_0/x_0)\cdot x-y$$
|
||||
or if $y_0=x_0$ is assumed, simply
|
||||
$$Z=y_0-x-y$$
|
||||
|
||||
We can also describe the random variables x and y; specify possible values for the mean ($\mu_x$, $\mu_y$) and standard deviation ($\sigma_x$, $\sigma_y$)If the object is generally stable the mean values should be below the line; specifically any value such that $mu_x<x_0$, $mu_y<y_0$ and $mu_y<y_0-mu_x$.
|
||||
|
||||
Since we want to find the design point we should use FORM, not Monte Carlo. If an object with a non-linear LSF is chosen, or non-normal random varialbes, this will be an approximation of pf but the design point is reliable. If x and y are described by a normal distribution, pf can be solved for exactly using the std normal dist for z with mu_z=y0-mu_x-mu_y and sigma_z=sqrt(sigma_x^2+sigma_y^2). Beta is the distance between point {mu_x, mu_y} and and the LSF such that the line is perpendicular to the LSF. The design point is the point on the LSF where the perpendicular line crosses which is the maximum probability density.
|
||||
Common mistakes on this question:
|
||||
- Not describing what x, y, x0 or y0 were
|
||||
- Using Z=R-S – this was a big error! Note: ok to write Z=R-S only if you clarify that S was a function of X and Y, and that x0 and y0 determine R (not necessarily as random variables)
|
||||
- Some tried to assign Y as a resistance with no explanation
|
||||
- Accidentally flipping the signs on R or S
|
||||
- Correct description of X and Y as loads, but not writing an equation that showed it
|
||||
- Writing Z = R - (X + Y) without an explanation of what R is
|
||||
- Combining x and y in the limit-state function in a way that makes it non-linear
|
||||
- FORM gives you the design point; Monte Carlo does not
|
||||
Comments about answers that were not quite right (points were not deduced for these):
|
||||
- Be careful with what you assign as a random variable: technically the length of a beam under load acts as a load variable (longer beam is more fragile), but you wouldn’t always include it as a random variable if the variance in the load is much bigger.
|
||||
- For large structures that are built once (e.g., a bridge in a valley) you can measure the width and construct the bridge, so it’s not really practical to consider these as the main loads or resistances, even though mathematically speaking (alpha value) it is true.
|
||||
- Combining load variables that had different units
|
||||
- Making time a random variable
|
||||
- Creating an object and/or limit state function that was non-linear (e.g., X*Y instead of X+Y)
|
||||
|
||||
Common ‘objects’: -->
|
||||
|
||||
7
book/exercises/overview.md
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7
book/exercises/overview.md
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|
|
@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
|
|||
# Exercises
|
||||
|
||||
A number of exercises are included in this chapter that illustrate the previously discussed concepts of risk and reliability in a probabilistic design context. At the end a set of **sample exam** questions are included.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
_Exercises are largely drawn from decades of old course material from many contributors; this chapter can be referred to using standard Editor attribution._
|
||||
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|
|
@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
|
|||
|
||||
store notebook in `./book/figures/` and rest of files in `./book/book/figures/`
|
||||
|
||||
**note** a video was made to illustrate gradient fill. stored in robert's dropbox for now
|
||||
|
||||
- figures created in cover ipynb
|
||||
- make axes and fig transparent
|
||||
- export without background in savefig
|
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- created doc in inkscape, set size to 210mmx210mm per OIT requirements
|
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- OIT requires 210mmx210mm and at least 300 pixels, which is 36 dpi or 36x36 dpi
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- Default inkscape was 96 dpi, which is 794x794 pixels
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- position figures
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- delete three points
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- export to png (default 96dpi is 100KB)
|
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- export cover_small.png (45 dpi is 35KB) >>> for book logo
|
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4181
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@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
|
|||
(intro)=
|
||||
# Risk and Reliability for Engineers
|
||||
|
||||
Almost all activities in life are characterized by some level of risk, such as riding a bike or driving a car, boarding an airplane, or living below sea level behind flood protection system. Particularly within the field of civil engineering, risk and safety are key concepts that should be taken into account explicitly in design and management. Failures of systems providing flood protection, water distribution, transportation networks, air quality control, buildings and other infrastructure are expected to occur rarely, but can lead to large consequences. On the other hand, these systems also provide many benefits to humankind on a daily basis.
|
||||
|
||||
*Risk* is often defined simply as the combination of probability and consequences; it is a measure of how bad something can be (the consequence) combined with the chance that it can happen. In mathematical form:
|
||||
|
||||
$$\text{Risk}_\text{bad thing}=\text{Consequence}_\text{bad thing}\cdot\text{Probability}_\text{bad thing}$$
|
||||
|
||||
```{note}
|
||||
:class: dropdown
|
||||
Why are the variables above written using words? Because many different terms and symbols are used in different fields of science and enginering which refer to about the same mathematical concepts. For example, 'failure probability,' $p_f$, is often used when designing structural components. However, this term may be misleading when applied to the probability that the concentration of a solute in groundwater exceeds a certain value, or the discharge of a river falling below a regulatory threshold for fish migration.
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
As engineers we are typically concerned with making sure bad things don't happen, or, stated more precisely for our purposes: *reducing the **probability** of a bad thing happening to an **acceptable** level.* To determine if this probability results in a situation that is *safe enough,* an acceptable level of risk needs to be defined. The eventual decision about acceptable risk is predominantly a political one, but engineers can have an important role in the discussion and decision-making. They can provide information on failure probabilities and consequences (economic consequences, life loss, etc.) of a given system and highlight trade-offs between investments in safer systems and risk reduction. Risk plays an important role in many current societal discussions. Examples include recent discussions related to Covid-19 vaccination programs and mitigation measures like facemasks, where there was a lot of uncertainty in the effect of on virus spread. Another example is the discussion over nuclear power versus fossil fuels: both activities bring various benefits (energy generation) but also introduce additional risks to the population and environment. A systematic analysis of risks of (proposed) projects can help to inform the broader societal discussions.
|
||||
|
||||
Inevitably, the consideration of risk should result in a specific value of probability that can be used in the design or evaluation of something; in other words, a specific criteria for $\text{Probability}_\text{bad thing}$. For standard applications and systems that are frequently constructed, the risk analysis has been done and building codes are available that define acceptable safety levels in such a way that the failure probability of a structure is sufficiently small. For example, Eurocode provides guidance for the design of structures using so-called target values for the failure probability different safety classes. Thus, critical buildings like hospitals are designed to be stronger than a hardware store. However, for other applications, e.g. special structures or new applications like the reliability of renewable energy-generating components, no standard codes or guidelines are available for design and a more explicit analysis of the reliability and risk of the system is required. An example from the past is the design of the Eastern Scheldt barrier. The acceptable probabilities of failure of the structure and non-closure of the gates were determined based on the acceptable risk of flooding of Zeeland. These probability values formed the basis for the so-called probabilistic design of the barrier in the 1970’s.
|
||||
|
||||
```{note}
|
||||
:class: dropdown
|
||||
Although much of this book focuses on calculating failure probability, or $\text{Probability}_\text{bad thing}$, we call this a reliability analysis, where *reliability* is simply
|
||||
|
||||
$$\text{Reliability}=1-\text{Probability}_\text{bad thing}$$
|
||||
|
||||
So in fact, as engineers we are optimistic, otherwise this chapter would be called Risk and *Un*reliability.
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
## Risk and Reliability in Practice
|
||||
|
||||
Throughout this book we will repeatedly draw on the field of flood management to illustrate risk and reliability concepts as this field requires expertise from all perspectives in civil and environmental engineering and geosciences, from climate and hydrologic processes to evacuation and recovery. In addition, this field has driven the development and use of risk and reliability techniques in the Netherlands since the flooding disaster of 1953, not to mention the experience gained during the previous millenium, albeit in a less rigorous mathematical fashion. And finally, new safety standards for primary flood defences in the Netherlands have been in place since 2017 that are formulated as a tolerable failure probability of dike[^dike] segments. As such, dike reinforcements are legally required to be designed according to these new standards, which requires one to show that the failure probability is less than an allowable maximum value.
|
||||
|
||||
Despite the focus on flood management, many applications exist in other fields, for example the discussion about the gas extraction in the North of the Netherlands which leads to increased earthquakes, building damage and potential injury to humans. A thorough analysis of the probability of earthquake occurrence, structural safety of various infrastructure (houses, levee, hospitals, pipelines), benefits associated with extracting gas and the resulting level of risk is required to make decisions about how to manage this industry. As with the flood management application, advanced knowledge of probabilistic techniques is needed.
|
||||
|
||||
## It All Comes Back to Probability
|
||||
|
||||
In short, risk and reliability concepts cannot be defined or applied without *probability.* It is necessary in order to quantify uncertainty and take it into account when making decisions, regardless of whether our specific task is to investigate, assess, design or create policy for a particular engineering problem. Probability theory is a powerful tool because it provides a way to quantify many aspects of uncertainty, for example:
|
||||
- precision of measurements
|
||||
- variability in data
|
||||
- accuracy and precision of data-driven or physics-based models
|
||||
- stochastic processes
|
||||
- unknown conditions due to lack of data or
|
||||
- inability to predict the outcome of future events with sufficient accuracy or precision
|
||||
- and many more
|
||||
|
||||
It is crucial that civil and environmental engineers and geoscientists are able to understand and apply the concepts of risk and reliability, as well as probability theory. As such, these lecture provide an introduction to the fundamental techniques and concepts necessary to do so.
|
||||
|
||||
## Book Overview
|
||||
|
||||
Risk and reliability concepts have been organized into five primary chapters to introduce fundamental concepts and progressively illustrate how they are applied in practice.
|
||||
- **Probabilistic Design** describes how probability is used in the design process and illustrates key concepts through simple examples and 'patterns' (analytic expressions and visual representations).
|
||||
- **Risk Analysis** as a process is formally defined and quantitative risk measures are introduced.
|
||||
- **Component Reliability** and **System Reliability** briefly introduce approaches for evaluating reliability, or $\text{P}_\text{bad thing}$, in order to carry out probabilistic assessment and design quantitatively. This is the *quantitative analysis* step of a risk analysis.
|
||||
- **Risk evaluation** provides simple quantitative tools and a framework for establishing risk-based safety standards and economic risk criteria. This is a key step in the risk analysis process.
|
||||
|
||||
Additional chapters are provided to put these concepts into context, explain industry-specific characteristics or indicate possibilities of additional study for the student.
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Resources
|
||||
|
||||
If you are in need of a quick refresher on fundamental probability and statistics topics, you may find the online course [Probability and Statistics for Engineers](https://tudelft-citg.github.io/learn-probability/) helpful. This course was created for those who need to brush up on topics from a prior bachelors-level course. If you have no background in probability and statistics you will need to take a more thorough approach; we recommend the Probability Theory and Statistics courses offered in the Mastering Mathematics series from TU Delft, which you can find [here](https://online-learning.tudelft.nl/topic/mastering-mathematics/) (also on EdX).
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Information
|
||||
|
||||
This book was developed and used for use in the master's program in the faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. Although the concepts are relevant for a wider audience outside the faculty, the generic reference "for Engineers" in the title refers to the diverse areas of emphasis evolving within the field historically referred to as "civil engineering." For example, our MSc programs in Environmental Engineerinng and Applied Earth Sciences.
|
||||
|
||||
Additional information about authors, licenses and how the book is made can be found on the {ref}`Credits and License page <credits>`. We hope you enjoy this book, and don't hesitate to contact {ref}`the Editor <editor>` with questions or suggestions!
|
||||
|
||||
[^dike]: A dike is a structure, typically made of soil, that protects a specific region from flooding by physically holding back water. Usually associated with rivers, such structures are also widely used on the coast, especially in low elevation areas such as the Netherlands. The Dutch word for levee is *dijk,* but English word *dike* is used in this book. Outside of the Netherlands the words *embankment* and *levee* are used.
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---
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This book is licensed under a <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.
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<a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png"/></a>
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